October 8th, 2013
There are a couple first-run releases on this week's list: After Earth and The Hangover: Part III. However, neither film won over critics and both bombed in theaters, when compared to their production budgets. That said, The Hangover: Part III will likely be the best selling release of the week. As for the best new release, including a number where I'm still waiting for the screener. Ignoring those, the two best are Robot Chicken: Season Six on DVD or Blu-ray and Much Ado About Nothing on DVD or Blu-ray. Both are must haves, but I'm going with the latter over the former for Pick of the Week.
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June 30th, 2013
As expected, Monsters University will retain the box office crown this weekend with Disney projecting a thoroughly respectable $46.2 million and a decline of 44% from its opening -- good by today's standards, and particularly good for a sequel (albeit one whose target demographic wasn't born when the original came out). The real action this weekend, though, is among the other films in the top five. The Heat will open with a robust $40 million or so, per Fox, which compares favorably to its forebear Bridesmaids' opening of $26.2 million in 2011 (although a fairer comparison might be the $41.6 million debut of The Hangover 3 in May). Three male-oriented action movies fill out the next three spots on the chart, and the competition was too much for White House Down.
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June 10th, 2013
We have a good news / bad news situation. The good news is The Purge crushed expectations and dominated the box office over the weekend. Additionally, nearly every film in the top ten held on better than expected. The bad new is... it still wasn't enough. The overall box office fell 9% from last weekend to $149 million. Worse still, this was 18% lower than the same weekend last year. This is terrible, but fortunately things should turn around next weekend.
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June 4th, 2013
As per usual, the post-holiday weekend suffers a slump, but it was worse than expected with nearly every film failing to live up to predictions. Fast and Furious 6 fell very far, but it still came out on top. Meanwhile, Now You See Me topped expectations and topped After Earth over the weekend. Now You See Me was the one lone bright spot on an otherwise soft weekend, and the overall box office fell 35% to $164 million. On the other hand, this was still 15% higher than the same weekend last year. 2013 was able to pull out the win thanks to a much deeper box office. Six films earned more than $10 million this weekend compared to just three earning more than $10 million last year.
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May 31st, 2013
Post-holiday weekends tend to feature weak releases and this time is no exception. After Earth is a film that should be a massive summer blockbuster, given its genre and its star, but the buzz is terrible. Now You See Me is the counter-programming release, but it should have a better opening than After Earth, relative to expectations and production budget. That said, Fast and Furious 6 will very likely remain on top of the box office chart. This weekend last year was the weekend Snow White and the Huntsman debuted and it earned $56 million. There's pretty much no chance any film will earn that much during this weekend. In fact, the two wide releases might not make that much combined.
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May 29th, 2013
As expected, Before Midnight led the way on the per theater chart with an average $49,383. This is the third best per theater average so far this year, behind just The Place Beyond the Pines and Spring Breakers. The overall box office leader, Fast and Furious 6, was next with an average of $26,620. Fill the Void was relatively close behind with an average of $19,721 in three theaters. The final film in the $10,000 club was The Hangover 3 with an average of $11,722.
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May 29th, 2013
Memorial Day long weekend has come and gone and it was a boon to the box office numbers. Not only did Fast and Furious 6 reach the high end of predictions, as did Epic. On the other hand, The Hangover III struggled. The positives overrode the negatives by a large margin and the overall box office rose to $254.37 million, which is a new record for a three-day Memorial Day weekend. Adding in Monday, and the box office made $313.18 million. The three-day portion of the weekend rose 65% compared to last weekend and 67% compared to last year. This weekend earned more than $100 million more than the same weekend in 2012. That is something that usually only happens when there's a misalignment in holiday weekends. If you add in Monday, 2013's Memorial Day long weekend earned 63% more than the Memorial Day long weekend from 2012. Granted, 2013 is still far behind 2012, but this is great news. Hopefully it will keep up for a while.
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May 26th, 2013
Memorial Day weekend will be one for the record books, thanks to a gigantic opening for Fast and Furious 6 and a gaggle of good results for a trailing pack of three films. The Hangover III will pick up $42.4 million (the worst opening weekend for the franchise, but still a solid performance by any measure); Star Trek Into Darkness is looking at a good hold with around $38 million Friday-Sunday and $121 million so far; and Epic gets off to a good start with $34.2 million, which is comfortably the most ever earned by a 4th-place finisher, besting Madea's Witness Protection's opening last year. But the real accolades must be reserved for Fast and Furious.
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May 24th, 2013
It's the Memorial Day long weekend and there are three new films looking to take advantage of the holiday, plus a number of holdovers that will likely still bring in a lot of money. Fast and Furious 6 is leading the way in terms of box office potential and many think it will crack $100 million over four days; some think it will crack $100 million over three days. The Hangover III debuted on Thursday, which will give it a jump on the competition, but soften its weekend numbers. Finally, there's Epic, a family film that seems like a sure hit, except there is a lot of competition this weekend. Star Trek into Darkness, Iron Man 3, and The Great Gatsby are all still doing well and should provide some competition for the three new releases. All combined, those six films should make as much as the entire box office did last year and 2013 will start to close the gap with 2012.
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May 17th, 2013
Next weekend, there are three films coming out in saturation level theater counts: Epic, Fast and Furious 6, and The Hangover 3. The Hangover 3 opens on Thursday, which makes it unsuitable for the Box Office Prediction contest. Epic is opening in more theaters and does work better when coming up with a name for the contest, but Fast and Furious 6 will easily have the bigger opening. As a result, it is the clear choice for the target movie for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Fast and Furious 6.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Dexter: Season Seven on Blu-ray.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a copy of Laverne and Shirley: Season Six on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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May 1st, 2013
As April ends and summer begins, we see the 2013 box office on a losing streak. There is some good news, as May should be much, much, much better than April was. Much better. During the five weekends in May, there are nine films opening wide. Of those film, there are seven that at least have a shot at $100 million. And of those seven films, four at least have a shot at $200 million, two have a shot at $300 million, and we might even have a $400 million hit this month. Iron Man 3 should turn out to be the biggest hit of the month, while there are some who think Star Trek: Into Darkness could be a close competitor for that honor. There's also some bad news. The Avengers opened last May and earned more than $600 million. No film opening this month will come close to that figure. There's a chance the top two films opening this month won't match that combined. On the other hand, last year there was a huge drop-off from the biggest hit of the month to the second biggest hit of the month. There were so many high-profile failures last year, that 2013 might actually start winning some weekends in the year-over-year comparison.
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