April 6th, 2014
It is a busy week on the home market with five wide releases / films that expanded wide among the new releases. This includes The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, which is dominating the chart with four of the top six new releases. Of those four releases, the 3D Combo Pack is the best deal. August: Osage County earned a couple of Oscar nominations, which should help it sell well, but the Blu-ray Combo Pack isn't quite Pick of the Week material. There are some other releases that are definitely worth picking up, for smaller target audiences. I Am Divine on DVD should please fans of the character, but I'm not sure there's enough of them out there to give it Pick of the Week. Finally, Sofia the First: The Floating Palace on DVD is a must have for young girls, and quite a few young boys, but the appeal isn't wide enough justify being a Pick of the Week. In the end, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug on 3D Combo Pack is the safest choice.
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April 5th, 2014
The Paranormal Activity has run for five years. The first film cost just $15,000 to make ($450,000 after post-production) and earned more than $100 million domestically and nearly $200 million worldwide. Obviously the studio started rushing out sequels. Unfortunately, some of the later sequels failed to win over critics and it "struggled" at the box office. (It made $86 million worldwide on a $5 million production budget.) The latest film in the franchise, Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones, is a spin-off of the original story and the first Paranormal Activity not released around Halloween. In fact, it was released in January, which is normally a dumping ground for films. On the other hand, there have been quite a few horror films to do relatively well early in the year in the past few years. Was this one of those successes? Or was it really dumped into theaters because the studio had no faith in the film?
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January 23rd, 2014
The Wolf of Wall Street rocketed from fifth place to first place with $32.84 million in 4,446 screens in 36 markets for an international total of $80.86 million over four weeks of release. The film opened in first place in the U.K. with $7.65 million on 500 screens, while in Germany it earned first place with $6.66 million on 502 screens. Meanwhile, it made $3.62 million on 327 screens in Spain, earning first place in that market as well.
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January 17th, 2014
At the beginning of the month, I thought this weekend would be a close race between Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit and Ride Along. That might still be the case, but it is increasingly unlikely, as Jack Ryan's buzz hasn't kept pace with the buzz for Ride Along. Additionally, Jack Ryan has direct competition from Lone Survivor, which nearly set the January record last weekend and should remain potent this weekend. This weekend last year, Mama won the weekend with $28.40 million and I don't think Ride Along will top that. On the other hand, last year there were only three films that topped $10 million, while this year there could be as many as seven or eight. (All four wide releases have a shot at $10 million, but it is likely not all will get there. There are two holdovers that will earn more than $10 million. Finally, American Hustle and The Wolf of Wall Street might get an Oscar bounce back to $10 million.) Even in the worst case scenario, four films will crack $10 million. 2014 should win for the first time in the week-over-week comparison.
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January 15th, 2014
After being in second place for a long time, Frozen finally scored first place with $27.8 million in 50 markets for totals of $394.6 million internationally and $711.9 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings this past weekend, but it opens this weekend in South Korea and in Japan in March.
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January 14th, 2014
As expected, Lone Survivor won the race to first place on the box office this past weekend. However, it crushed predictions to an astounding degree. It wasn't enough. The overall box office was down to $140 million. Granted, that was less than 1% lower than last weekend and just over 1% lower than the same weekend last year, but it is still frustrating. Besides the number one film, there's not a lot of positive news to report. Year-to-date, 2014 is a little behind 2013 at $413 million to $436 million. Granted, it is far too soon to talk about end of year results, but you obviously would want a fast start rather than a slow start.
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January 10th, 2014
The winners of our Sign Me Up contest were determined and it is...
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January 9th, 2014
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug began 2014 the same way it ended 2013, on top. This weekend it pulled in $58 million in 62 markets for totals of $527 million internationally and $756 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings this past weekend, but did remain in fourth place in Russia with $9.6 million on 1,378 screens for a total of $42 million after three weeks of release. It was able to remain in top spot in Germany for the fourth weekend in a row with $8.6 million on 1,40 screens for a total of $75.1 million there. Granted, the film won't match An Unexpected Journey's debut, but it will end its run with well over $800 million worldwide, possibly even $900 million worldwide. There's no way to look at that figure and not call the movie a smashing success.
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January 7th, 2014
The box office wasn't as boisterous as anticipated and this is partially due to the seasonal storm that hit the east coast. This is also partially due to weaker than expected numbers for Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones, which only managed second place in its debut. This allowed Frozen to return to top spot on the chart, even though it was a little weaker than expected. The overall box office fell 27% from last weekend down to $141 million. Compared to last year, the box office was down 4%, which isn't a good result, but it is also not terrible. Had The Marked Ones merely matched expectations, it would have been a virtual tie.
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January 5th, 2014
Given the weather conditions in half the country, this weekend couldn't have a more appropriate winner at the box office. Disney's Frozen takes top honors again in its 7th weekend in release after previously topping the chart the weekend of December 6th. The film is projected to earn $20.72 million this weekend, making it only the fourth film ever to earn more than $20 million at this stage in its theatrical run. Avatar, Titanic and Home Alone are the other three (and see full list of 7th weekends here). Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones was pushed into second spot with a decent $18.2 million opening.
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January 2nd, 2014
Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones is the only wide release opening on the first weekend of the year. The long running franchise will have to battle a weaker release date, franchise fatigue, and several holdovers that are still going strong. It still has a good shot at first place, as does Frozen. Frozen could win the weekend, with the help of families going out to the movies one last time before school starts again. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug probably won't extend its winning streak, but it should still be pull in quite a bit of money over the weekend. Last year the year started with Texas Chainsaw 3D earning more than $20 million. Django Unchained also topped $20 million over the weekend, albeit by the tiniest margin. We might have two $20 million films this weekend as well, with as many as five additional films earning more than $10 million. If 2014 doesn't win in the year-over-year comparison, it should at least be close.
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January 1st, 2014
It's the first month of the new year, but the biggest hit might be a film released in December. Last month ended on a slow note with all five Christmas day releases failing to become hits, some more than others. (It's a little too soon to tell if The Wolf of Wall Street or The Secret Life of Walter Mitty will do well enough to break even any time soon, but neither is a serious hit.) There are still some December releases that will likely remain on the charts through the opening weekends of January, while there are some films that opened in limited release last month with a scheduled wide release this month. Of the purely January releases, I would guess Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit will be the biggest hit. Even then, it won't live up to the previous films in the franchise, even if you don't take inflation into account. Most of the rest of the new releases will be happy if they can become midlevel hits. Last January was led by Mama, which earned more than $70 million. I think Shadow Recruit will top that figure at the box office, while there are a similar number of likely box office bombs opening this year as there were last year. 2014 could start out ahead of 2013's pace, but it likely won't be a huge difference either way.
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December 27th, 2013
It's the first Box Office Prediction contest of the year and it is an easy week to pick a target film, as the only wide release is Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones. Paranormal Activity is an established franchise, but this is the first film in the series not to open wide in October, so it will be interesting to see how moviegoers reach. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), regardless if they go over or not, will win a signed poster for The Legend of Hercules, signed by Kellan Lutz.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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