The country might be distracted by a drawn-out election right now, but the movie business soldiers on this month, even though recovery from the pandemic looks as far away as ever. While theatrical grosses remain tiny, Universal is currently planning to try its luck with three new wide releases, two from the studio itself and one from its specialty division Focus Features.
At least, that’s their current plan. Two of the films seem certain to roll out, but their Thanksgiving release of The Croods: A New Age has to come with an asterisk attached. Perhaps this release will be an olive branch to theater operators after the studio caused controversy in March by pulling Trolls World Tour from theaters and sending it direct to PVOD. Universal is maybe taking this opportunity to look they’re supporting the theatrical business, and their case is made more convincing by the fact that every other major studio is sitting out November. Even looking beyond the end of the month, 20th Century Studios is the only other distributor that looks like it’ll have a wide release between now and Christmas, with Free Guy on December 11 and Death on the Nile on December 18. (Universal has another film, All My Life slated for December 4.)
If Universal sticks to its plans, and a couple of other expected changes (Coming 2 America going direct to Amazon Prime, and Wonder Woman 1984 getting pushed back again) happen, it’ll be the only studio offering real support to the theatrical business between now and the end of the year. Maybe everyone will let bygones be bygones, and we can at least point to that as a ray of hope for the industry going in Holiday Season.
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September destroyed the previous September monthly record for total box office take, with $800 million or so (we won’t know the exact figure until after the weekend), which tops 2016’s record of $616 million. Granted, this is almost entirely due to It’s record breaking run, and the rest of the month was merely average. Kingsman: The Golden Circle was the only other film to come close to $100 million. October doesn’t look any better, as far as depth is concerned. Blade Runner 2049 is widely expected to be the biggest hit of the month, but it is the only film expected to reach $100 million domestically. Boo 2 should be the second biggest hit of the month, while there are only a couple of other films that have a shot at $50 million. Part of the problem is the level of competition, as there are 16 films opening during the four October weekends. (Needless to say, some of the predictions below will be a little short, as there’s not much to say about a film that will barely open in the top ten and disappear two weeks later.) That’s way too many and most will be buried by the competition. Last October was a flop, as no film earned more than $100 million at the box office. There were a few films that came close, including the original Boo! movie. As long as Blade Runner 2049 matches expectations, 2017 should win the year-over-year comparison by a small margin. If we get one surprise hit, then 2017 has a real shot at closing the gap with 2016 by a significant margin. I choose to be cautiously optimistic.
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September ended on a record note with the debut of Hotel Transylvania 2. Additionally, there was great depth and 2015's lead over 2014 grew to nearly $500 million. How do things look going forward? The month starts out with The Martian, which should have no trouble becoming the biggest hit of the month and might even top $200 million. On the other hand, no other film is expected to get to $100 million. There's only one or two that will even come close. Fortunately, last October was very similar with one $100 million hit, Gone Girl, while two other films came close, Annabelle and Fury. It looks like it will be up to the depth films from both years to determine which year comes out on top.
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It's the first month of the new year, but the biggest hit might be a film released in December. Last month ended on a slow note with all five Christmas day releases failing to become hits, some more than others. (It's a little too soon to tell if The Wolf of Wall Street or The Secret Life of Walter Mitty will do well enough to break even any time soon, but neither is a serious hit.) There are still some December releases that will likely remain on the charts through the opening weekends of January, while there are some films that opened in limited release last month with a scheduled wide release this month. Of the purely January releases, I would guess Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit will be the biggest hit. Even then, it won't live up to the previous films in the franchise, even if you don't take inflation into account. Most of the rest of the new releases will be happy if they can become midlevel hits. Last January was led by Mama, which earned more than $70 million. I think Shadow Recruit will top that figure at the box office, while there are a similar number of likely box office bombs opening this year as there were last year. 2014 could start out ahead of 2013's pace, but it likely won't be a huge difference either way.
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