September 12th, 2016
This week, the biggest hit of the year so far, Captain America: Civil War, comes out. It is also one of the best and the Blu-ray is a contender for Pick of the Week. Unfortunately, the screener is late and I don’t like awarding Pick of the Week to a release where I’m still waiting on the Blu-ray. The rest of the contenders are smaller films, including The Bloodstained Butterfly, which arrived late. Part of me wants to give the title to The Transformers: The Movie, but while I plan to buy the Blu-ray, I understand that Nostalgia has a lot to with that. ... Oh what the hell, doing it. The Transformers: The Movie is the Pick of the Week.
August 16th, 2016
There are a lot of releases on this week’s list, but most of them are like The Angry Birds Movie on DVD, Blu-ray Combo Pack, or 4K Combo Pack. They are good, but not good enough to be a Pick of the Week contender. The best new release is The Fits, but it is only coming out on Video on Demand.
June 14th, 2016
As anticipated, The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist led the weekend box office with ease pulling in $40.41 million. The second place film, Warcraft, earned 40% less. Now You See Me 2 only managed third place and it will need a lot of help to break even. The overall box office was $152 million, which is 13% more than last weekend. However, it was also more than $100 million less than this weekend last year. Normally a 44% collapse like this only happens when there is a misalignment in holidays. In this case, it's because of Jurassic World. 2016 is still ahead of 2015 by a substantial margin at $4.76 billion to $4.54 billion. 2016's lead is now 4.8%, more than a full percentage point lower than it was this time last week, but hopefully Finding Dory will help prevent a similar descent this week.
June 7th, 2016
Two of the three new wide releases failed to make much of an impact at the box office over the weekend. This includes the overall number one film, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows. It earned $35.32 million during its opening weekend, which isn't as bad as some feared, but it is also well below its predecessor's opening. Me Before You did very well in a counter-programming role with $18.72 million. Finally, Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping barely topped the Mendoza Line. Overall, the box office earned $133 million, which is 19% lower than last weekend, but that is an acceptable post-holiday decline. Compared to last year, the box office this year was lower, but by less than 0.1%. Year-to-date, 2016's lead has grown to $250 million or 5.9% at $4.56 billion to $4.30 billion.
June 5th, 2016
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows will top the box office chart this weekend with a respectable $35.25 million, according to studio estimates released on Sunday. The weekend as a whole is looking fairly ordinary though, thanks in large part to the muted debuts of X-Men: Apocalypse and Alice Through the Looking Glass last weekend, and their predictably-steep post-Memorial-Day declines. Apocalypse is off 66% this weekend to $22.325 million and $116.5 million in total. Alice will eke out $10.7 million or so for a two-week total of $50.8 million. Overall, the market will be down about 1% from the same weekend last year, and 20% below the comparable weekend from 2014.
June 3rd, 2016
Oh no. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows earned the best Thursday night previews, but did so with just $2 million. That's a mere fraction of the $4.5 million Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and could spell real trouble for the film's box office chances. The reviews are a little better than its predecessor's reviews were, but it is also a sequel and those tend to have shorter legs. It might struggle to top $30 million and that means first place isn't a sure thing anymore.
June 2nd, 2016
It's one of those weekends where the bigger the release is, the worse its reviews are. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows is the only film expected to top $100 million domestically and its reviews are just 31% positive. Me Before You is expected to be a midlevel hit, but its reviews have slipped to 47% positive. Meanwhile, most analysts think Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping will bomb, but its reviews are by far the best at 81% positive. This weekend last year, Spy opened with just under $30 million. Out of the Shadows should top that, while both years have similar depth. Hopefully 2016 will win the year-over-year comparison.
June 1st, 2016
May was great, as long as you don't compare it to last May. Captain America: Civil War was a monster hit and is closing in on $400 million, while both X-Men: Apocalypse and The Angry Birds Movie will earn over $100 million. Looking ahead, every week in June, there is one movie that should top $100 million; however, only Finding Dory is expected to make more than $200 million. In fact, that film is expected to make close to $400 million domestically and over $1 billion worldwide. Last June, there were two monster hits, Inside Out and Jurassic World, plus one $100 million hit, Spy. I don't see how 2016 will top that. Even if every film with a shot at $100 million gets to that milestone, 2016 still might not top last year's pace. Fortunately, 2016 does have a large lead and that could be enough to keep 2016 ahead of 2015's pace in the year-over-year competition. It could be really close at the end of the month, on the other hand.
May 26th, 2016
Next week is the first weekend of June and there are three wide releases opening that week: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows, Me Before You, and Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping. The TMNT is the only film that has a shot at being a $100 million hit. There's a chance it will make more during its opening weekend than the combined totals of the other two films. It is the only real choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number forTeenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of The Confirmation on Blu-ray, plus a randomly selected previously reviewed movie.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize, consisting of two previously reviewed movies.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win another Frankenprize, consisting of two previously reviewed movies.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!