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Weekend Predictions: Will Ice Age Heat Up the Box Office?

July 12th, 2012

This weekend, Ice Age: Continental Drift has the weekend to itself, at least as far as new wide releases goes. It will still have to deal with holdovers, but The Amazing Spider-Man will likely be in a distant second place. Last year, the number one release was Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II, which opened with a then record $169.19 million. Ice Age won't match that. In fact, there's a chance Ice Age won't make that much during its entire run. 2012 box office is going to take a tumble this weekend.

Ice Age: Continental Drift is the fourth installment of the Ice Age franchise. The franchise has been remarkably consistent in terms of box office numbers with the previous three films all earning between $175 million to nearly $200 million. In fact, the final two films finished within $1.3 million of each other. On the other hand, the reviews started strong, they got weaker and weaker. Ice Age: Continental Drift's Tomatometer Score is the lowest so far currently at 42% positive. That's probably not low enough to be fatal for a family film, but it might hurt the film's box office chances. There are some who think it will top $70 million, which would make it the fastest-opening film in the franchise. But there are also some who think it will fail to reach $50 million, maybe even fail to match the opening of the first film. The lower figure is more likely with $56 million being a safe bet, but there is a little more uncertainty out there.

The Amazing Spider-Man is about $35 million away from becoming the fifth film of the year to reach $200 million. (It is very likely that Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted became the fourth sometime tonight.) Will it get there this weekend? Unlikely. It appears to be on track for a 50% drop-off this weekend. There are some reasons to be optimistic. The reviews are good at 74% positive and since it was a midweek opening, the weekend wasn't as bloated. That said, the Fanboy Effect will still be in force here. A 50% drop-off would cut the film's weekend haul to $31 million, which is probably on the high end of the range. A 60% drop-off would leave it below $25 million, which is possible. Go with a nice round $30 million, meaning it will be at $200 million by this time next week and it will finish with over $250 million.

Ted should add another $20 million over the weekend and is on pace to reach $200 million in total, more or less. If it does get there, it will continue the trend of R-rated comedies having better than average legs.

Brave is also on pace to get to $200 million, but it will also have to wait a bit to get there. This weekend it should add just over $10 million, giving it close to $195 million after four weeks of release. This is better than Cars 2 made, but weaker than average for Pixar.

Magic Mike and Savages should finish in a virtual tie for fifth place with $8 million, more or less. It looks like Magic Mike will finish just shy of $100 million while Savages will be a midlevel hit, but no more.


Filed under: Weekend Preview, Brave, The Amazing Spider-Man, Ted, Ice Age: Continental Drift, Savages, Magic Mike