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Titans Set to Tower Above the Rest

April 1st, 2010

It's the start of a new month and many are predicting that we will get off to a record start. The big release of the week is Clash of the Titans and its only competition is Fast & Furious, which opened with nearly $71 million this time last year. Will this movie be able to meet or exceed that figure? We shall soon find out.

The obvious pick for the number one film of the weekend is Clash of the Titans, the big budget special effects bonanza. From the time this movie was first announced, most people were expecting little more than a popcorn flick; a movie that offers little more than big action scenes with little plot to get in the way. As long as the special effects were amazing, its target audience should be satisfied. Here's where things get complicated. The film was shot in 2D and later "upgraded" to 3D with computers in post-production. But a lot of critics are complaining that this conversion actually ruins the special effects. And since most critics agree that the special effects are the best part of a weak movie, this is a real problem. Even the positive reviews generally have some pretty negative things to say. That said, its marketing push is aggressive and reviews are better than Fast & Furious earned last year, so it should still become a monster hit. Will it do well enough to break the record for biggest April opening? Maybe. It could depend on whether they count tonight's evening shows as part of tomorrow's box office. Look for just shy of $70 million from now till Sunday, which is not quite the record, but close enough to make the studio very, very happy.

How to Train Your Dragon opened a little weaker than its reviews suggested it should. However, with those reviews its word-of-mouth should be amazing, and with its target audience, its legs should be equally amazing. Some are predicting the film will fall just 30% this weekend, which would give it just over $30 million over the next three days. That seems a little too optimistic for me, but even a 35% drop off to $28 million would be a great sophomore stint and would keep the film on pace to reach more than $150 million at the box office.

Tyler Perry returns to theaters after an absence of over six months. I'm not saying he's a prolific director, but it has barely been four years since he directed his first movie and Why Did I Get Married Too? is his eighth film. Why Did I Get Married? was released in 2007 and earned $21.35 million during its opening weekend, finishing with $55.20 million. Since it only cost $15 million to make, it was a very profitable film, so it makes sense there would be a sequel. Since it is a sequel, it is likely that it will open faster, but have weaker legs. And this is based purely on historical data, because at the moment there are not enough reviews to judge the film by. It appears the film will earn about $25 million over the weekend and will likely finish with $60 million overall.

On Wednesday I predicted The Last Song would earn $5 million during its first day of release. It earned $5.15 million. Because of that, there's little reason to update my prediction for the weekend. Although I will point out that its reviews have slipped perilously close to single digits.

Sometime tonight, Alice in Wonderland will cross $300 million at the box office, while over the weekend it should add another $10 million to its running tally. It is the biggest earner of the year and will remain on top of that list for the next month or so.

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Filed under: The Last Song, Alice in Wonderland, How to Train Your Dragon, Clash of the Titans, Why Did I Get Married Too?