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Supreme Odds

July 23rd, 2004

Just two wide releases this week, but unfortunately they share a lot of the same target audience. This could result in ticket splitting making both films suffer at the box office. But it is more likely that one film will simply crush the other. With the sheer contrast between their critical reception, one of them certainly deserves to crush the other.

When The Bourne Identity opened back in June, 2002 it could only manage a second place finish. But it showed amazing legs at the box office and it not only earned $200 million worldwide, but also became the most rented DVD of 2003. This week the sequel, The Bourne Supremacy looks like it should easily top the first's open weekend performance. Its reviews are strong, just not as strong as the excellent reviews earned by the first movie. Look for $42 million this weekend, which should be more than enough to ensure the final novel in the franchise is also adapted into a movie.

I, Robot will slip to second place with a very respectable $26 million. That's a good figure considering the direct competition this weekend, but not quite enough for the film to cross $100 million over the weekend.

Spider-man 2 will drop yet another spot to third place with $14 million. Strong weekday numbers and long legs will push this film past $350 million, but it is very unlikely it can match the final box office of its predecessor.

Comic book movies were all the rage not to long ago and it seemed that every lessor known Super Hero would be the focus of a movie adaptation. Then came the Hulk, which was massively hurt by bad buzz regarding early CGI work and in the end made less than half what the studio was hoping for. Catwoman also suffered from early negative buzz, this time over the outfit Halle Berry wears. It is important to note that bad buzz doesn't necessarily mean the movie will be bad, but in this case the bad buzz seems to be on target. If the term, "Unintentionally funny" appears in the reviews, it's a bad sign, but the phrase, "somebody should be slapped" really emphasizes how bad the movie is. Look for a run very similar to The Punisher, with the better release date counteracting the weaker reviews. $13 million over the weekend and about $30 million overall.

A Cinderella Story and Anchorman finished within a rounding error of each other last weekend, and I think they'll do the same this weekend. This time both will pull in $7 million.

While Fahrenheit 9/11 will miss the top five, it will reach a major milestone as it becomes the first documentary to earn $100 million at the box office. Arguably, this is the biggest shock in the movie industry the year.

Also of note, Harold and Kumar Go to White Castle has a sneak peak this Friday in roughly 900 theatres. So far this film has received 100% positive reviews, which may just be the second biggest shock in the movie industry the year.

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Filed under: Spider-Man 2, The Bourne Supremacy, I, Robot, Fahrenheit 9/11, Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy, A Cinderella Story, Catwoman, Harold & Kumar Go to White Castle