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Weekend Predictions: Longest Ride is a Long Shot for Top Spot

April 9th, 2015

The Longest Ride poster

There's only one wide release this week, The Longest Ride, but it has an approximately zero percent chance of earning first place. Unless Furious 7 falls about 80% and The Longest Ride beats expectations, it will be no where near top spot. In fact, The Longest Ride likely won't be able to score second place, finishing behind Home. As for this weekend last year, there were three wide releases, led by Rio 2, which earned second place with $39.33 million. The Longest Ride might not make that much in total. On the other hand, the sophomore stint for Furious 7 will top the sophomore stint for Captain America: The Winter Soldier. 2015 will be stronger on top, but that might not be enough to win in the year-over-year comparison.

Last weekend, Furious 7 crushed records and it became the biggest film released in 2015 during the week. This weekend, it hopes to not collapse. The franchise doesn't have a good track record when it comes to legs, even the installments that earned great reviews. On the other hand, the film has no real competition this weekend, which should help at least a little bit. This weekend last year, Captain America: The Winter Soldier fell 57%, which is probably as good as it will get for Furious 7. A 70% drop-off isn't out of the question. I'm going with a 67% decline leaving the film with $49 million.

Home reached the $100 million mark on Tuesday, making it the seventh film released in 2015 to reach that milestone. Meanwhile, it should add about $18 million over the weekend to its coffers reaching the top five for the year. By the end of the weekend, the film will be about a day away from matching its production budget, which should make the studio happy.

The Longest Ride is the latest film based on a novel by Nicholas Sparks. So far his track record with critics has been much weaker than his track record at the box office. This film is certainly living down to his reputation earning reviews that are just 35% positive. To be fair, that's better than his average. On the other hand, the buzz is terrible. Some suspect it will earn the worst opening for a Nicholas Sparks' film. It likely won't be that bad, but even on the high end it will likely only make $16 million. I'm going with $14 million, which isn't anything to be impressed by.

Get Hard should add close to $7 million over the weekend lifting its total to $70 million. This is enough to become a solid midlevel hit and it should break even relatively early in its home market run.

Cinderella and Insurgent will be in a close race for fifth place with between $6 million and $5 million. Cinderella does have the edge, but it could be close.


Filed under: Weekend Preview, Home, The Longest Ride, Furious 7, Cinderella, The Divergent Series: Insurgent, Get Hard, Fast and the Furious, Nicholas Sparks