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Weekend Predictions: Will Ted 2 Take the Box Office to the Max?

June 26th, 2015

Ted 2

It’s the final weekend of June and there are two wide releases hoping to grab some cash before Independence Day Long Weekend. Ted 2 is a sequel to an amazingly popular R-rated comedy. Unfortunately, we’ve seen too many times that sequels to comedies rarely live up to to their predecessors. The other wide release is Max, which is being called “earnest,” which is both a compliment and an insult. Regardless, it likely won’t be a significant player at the box office this weekend. On the other hand, both Jurassic World and Inside Out have a legitimate shot at first place over the weekend. This weekend last year, the box office was led by Transformers: Age of Extinction, which earned just over $100 million. No film will match that figure this weekend. On the other hand, the second place film last year was 22 Jump Street, which earned $15.84 million. 2015 won’t lead the way at the top of the chart, but it certainly has better depth than 2014 had and should come out on top of the year-over-year competition.

A film’s sophomore stint is usually the weekend it sees the worst week-over-week drop-off, at least until it starts losing theaters at a rapid pace. If this is true for Jurassic World, then it will drop less than 50% at the box office. That would leave the film with about $55 million over the weekend, which will put it in a tight race for second place on the biggest 3rd weekend at the box office record. It will also push the film into first place on the overall 2015 chart.

Last weekend, Inside Out broke a record we failed to mention. It had the biggest weekend ever for a film that didn’t earn first place. In fact, it didn't just break the record, it destroyed the record, which was previously held by The Day After Tomorrow, which opened with $68.74 million. This weekend, the film should hold on really well, thanks to its reviews, its target audience, and the lack of truly direct competition. Granted, Max is also a family film, but it is a live action family film and those films don’t have nearly the same box office potential. Finally, Inside Out is also not a sequel / remake / adaptation, etc. As an original IP, its legs should be even better. In fact, it should fall only 40%, more or less, which would give it $55 million over the weekend. If this happens, it will be on pace for $300 million, or perhaps even more.

Ted 2 is a sequel to Ted, which was a surprise $200 million hit in 2012. Its predecessor earned $54.42 million during its opening weekend. Most sequels start faster than their predecessors do, but fall quicker. The last part will certainly be true here, as the reviews are much weaker than the original’s reviews. However, I’m not 100% sold the first part will happen. The film appears to be on track for an opening weekend box office in the low- to mod-$50 million range. Sure, there’s a chance it will crack $60 million, but there's an equal chance it will fail to reach $50 million over the weekend. I’m going with $55 million over the weekend. Yes, I’m predicting three films will earn $55 million. It is going to be a really close weekend at the box office.

Max will open in a distant fourth place with $10 million, more or less. Live action family films rarely do particularly well at the box office and this one has even more stacked against it, as Inside Out overshadows it. Plus, its reviews are weak with too many critics calling it emotionally manipulative rather than emotionally moving. It likely didn’t cost a whole lot to make, so an opening of $10 million isn’t a bad start, but unless it is a bigger than expected hit internationally and / or on the home market, it likely won’t be a financial hit either.

Spy! should round out the top five with about $6 million for a total of $87 million after four weeks of release. The film will remain on pace to top $100 million thanks to its impressive legs, which are in turn thanks to its impressive reviews.


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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Jurassic World, Inside Out, Ted 2, Spy!, Max