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Weekend Predictions: Will Kong be King of the Box Office?

March 9th, 2017

Kong: Skull Island

There’s only one new release this week, Kong: Skull Island, which should earn first place on the box office chart. Probably. Logan isn’t too far back as far as box office tracking and might repeat in first place. In order to do this, Logan would either have to hold on a lot better than most comic book movies do and / or Kong would have to miss expectations. This weekend last year, there were four wide releases; however, they only managed a little more than $35 million combined. Kong: Skull Island should top that with ease and that’s good news for 2017. Unfortunately, Zootopia earned more than $50 million and that will likely be out of reach for Kong, so 2017 will need to rely on its depth to win in the year-over-year competition. I’m optimistic that will happen.

Kong: Skull Island is the latest in the King Kong franchise, a franchise that has been around for more than 80 years and has been rebooted a number of times. This most recent incarnation is part of a cinematic universe with the most recent Godzilla reboot. I’m sure moviegoers are mostly sick of studios trying to recreate the success of the MCU; however, the reviews for Skull Island are excellent, with most critics praising the energy and sheer entertainment value. If you are going to make a shared cinematic universe that no one really asked for, do your best to make each installment entertaining on their own. The buzz isn’t as loud as it was for Logan and Beauty and the Beast is making a lot of noise as well. As a result, it likely won’t be a monster hit. That said, an opening weekend haul of $45 million will put it on pace to reach $100 million domestically and it could be a major box office hit internationally as well.

Logan had one of the best March openings of all time last week and thanks to its reviews, it should have a better-than-average hold for a comic book movie this weekend. Granted, “better than average” is likely still a little more than a 50% drop-off, but likely better than a 60% drop-off. Split the difference and you get a little under $40 million, but I’m going to predict just over $40 million instead.

Get Out will top $100 million this weekend. I’m going to assume this is more than the studio thought it would earn in total, and I don’t just mean worldwide. I mean worldwide box office plus home market sales. Look for $19 million this weekend putting it on pace for $150 million domestically.

The Shack will add just under $9 million over the weekend. Its reviews won’t attract anyone who isn’t into faith-based films and without crossover appeal, their legs can be short. Then again, it will have pulled in $30 million after just two weeks of release and this is likely more than it cost to make and advertise.

The Lego Batman Movie should round out the top five with $7 million. The film will need to reach $300 million worldwide to pay for its entire production and advertising budgets before the home market. Even if it doesn’t get there, it will break even during its initial push onto the home market.

- Kong: Skull Island Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Logan, Kong: Skull Island, The Lego Batman Movie, The Shack, Get Out, King Kong, Godzilla, Marvel Cinematic Universe
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