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Weekend Predictions: Does It Have What it Takes to Rescue the Box Office?

September 7th, 2017

It

The weekend after the Labor Day long weekend is usually one of the worst weekends of the year. However, that’s not the case this year. In fact, this could be the best weekend in about two months. It is widely expected to dominate the box office. In fact, there are some who think it will earn much more than the rest of the box office combined. That would be great news for the overall box office numbers. On the other hand, Home Again is only expected to earn around $10 million; however, it reportedly only cost $15 million to make, so that’s not a bad opening. This weekend last year, the biggest new release was Sully with just over $35 million, while When the Bough Breaks did okay in a counter-programming role pulling in $14 million. Overall, the box office earned $101 million and if It lives up to the hype, it will help 2017 win in the year-over-year competition by a significant degree.

The hype for It has always been good, but its has really grown as the reviews have come out. The film’s Tomatometer score has slipped a bit from where it was, but at 89% positive, it is still a major selling point. The biggest concern I have is the recent box office slump. There’s a chance that so many regular moviegoers haven’t been to the theaters in over a month that they have decided they enjoy movies at home rather than dealing with the bother of theaters. As a result of this, the box office could never truly recover, while VOD, Netflix, etc. would enter a golden age. Assuming that isn’t the case, then It should crush the September weekend box office record earning $60 million. In fact, this is more than any October weekend. Furthermore, I’m not as bullish as some predictions I’ve seen. I’m still worried that this extended slump has taken its toll on the overall box office health and it will take a few weeks to get the box office back to full health.

Home Again has had a rollercoaster ride when it comes to its reviews. The early reviews were simply terrible and the lowest Tomatometer Score I saw was a mere 20% positive. Then the next day it peaked at 44% had it continued to improve at that pace, it could have reached the overall positive level. Instead, its Tomatometer Score plummeted again down to 29%. This is a low enough score to hurt its box office chances and it only has a 50/50 chance of topping $10 million during its opening weekend. This is not a good start, but the film reportedly cost just $15 million, so a $10 million start isn’t a disaster.

The Hitman’s Bodyguard will finally give up first place, earning just under $5 million. This will keep it on pace for close to $75 million domestically, which is more than enough to cover its entire $30 million production budget. If the film merely matches this figure internationally, then it could break even before it hits the home market. That depends on how much the studio spent on global advertising.

Wind River should be next with just under $4 million over the weekend for a running tally of about $25 million. By the end of the weekend, the film will be in a virtual tie with Gifted for second biggest limited release of the year.

Annabelle: Creation should round out the top five with just over $3 million. The film didn’t lose nearly as many theaters as I was expecting, so that will help it get to $100 million domestically. I think it held on better, because there were so many other films that had lower theater averages and they lost theaters first.

- It Comparisons
- Home Again Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Hitman’s Bodyguard, Annabelle: Creation, It, Home Again, Wind River