Weekend Estimates: Predator Misses Expectations, Still Tops Soft Weekend
September 16, 2018
This isn’t a great weekend at the box office, as three of the four new releases are missing expectations, according to studio Sunday morning estimates, as well as the biggest holdover. The Predator will come out on top with $24.0 million over the weekend, but, while that’s not bad for a September release, there’s not a lot to be excited about either. Its reviews are just 34% positive, while it only managed a C plus from CinemaScore, both of which suggest short legs. It is way too early to tell how it will perform internationally, but it only managed fourth place in South Korea with a total opening of $1.2 million on 572 screens. That’s not good and the film needs to be a major hit outside of the domestic market if it is to break even any time soon.
The Nun will fall 66% to $18.2 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $85.1 million. This is a sharper decline than we predicted, but the movie already has $228.7 million worldwide, which could be enough to pay for its combined production and advertising budgets. In other words, it is still fantastically successful at the box office and even really short legs won’t be a reason to be concerned about the franchise’s future.
A Simple Favor will open in third place with $16.05 million over the weekend. That’s a little lower than expected, but likely enough to keep Lionsgate happy, especially with a $20 million budget.
White Boy Rick opens in fourth place with $8.8 million, which was a little bit above expectations. Its reviews are 64% positive while it earned a B from CinemaScore, so its legs will be merely average. I think it’s going to be remembered as busted Oscar-bait.
Unbroken: Path to Redemption will open in ninth place with just $2.35 million over the weekend. Its theater average is just $1,451, meaning theater owners will be looking to drop it well before its A-rating from CinemaScore can help its word-of-mouth.
There are a few limited releases that are opening well. Museum is projected to earn $17,500 in its lone theater, while both Lizzie ($12,474) and Science Fair ($12,250) open in the $10,000 club.
- The Predator Comparisons
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- A Simple Favor Comparisons
- White Boy Rick Comparisons
- Unbroken: Path to Redemption Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, White Boy Rick, The Predator, The Nun, Lizzie, Unbroken: Path to Redemption, A Simple Favor, Science Fair, Museo, The Conjuring