Weekend Estimates: Ralph Wrecks Predictions, Technically Sets Record
November 25, 2018
While Thanksgiving long weekend wasn’t as lucrative as earlier figures suggested, estimates are still better than our predictions. For example, Ralph Breaks the Internet should open with $55.67 million over the three-day weekend for a five-day opening of $84.47 million. This is technically the record for biggest Thanksgiving opening, as Frozen had a prestige opening the weekend before and only expanded wide on Thanksgiving. Internationally, the film reportedly made $41.5 million during its opening weekend. This doesn’t sound like a lot, but it is only playing in about a third of international markets, and only three major markets. It opened with an estimated $19.5 million in China, while it was also dominant in Mexico ($6.3 million) and Russia ($5.7 million). Overall, the film nearly tripled Wreck-it Ralph’s openings in the same markets. The film won’t have the same legs, as sequels almost never do, but this is still an amazing start and it is clearly on pace for $600 million worldwide.
Creed II's estimate breaks the record for live-action Thanksgiving debut with $35.29 million over the three-day weekend for a total opening of $55.81 million, which is great news for anyone who likes unambiguous records. The previous record holder was Enchanted, which had significant animated sequences and the use of animated characters throughout. This is a big jump up from the original Creed and with strong reviews and an A from CinemaScore, it should have good legs.
If estimates hold, then Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald and Dr Seuss’ The Grinch will switch places depending on if you are looking at the three-day or five-day weekend. At the moment, The Crimes of Grindelwald earned third place over the five day weekend with $42.92 million, but had to settle for fourth over the three-day weekend with $29.65 million, giving the film a total of $117.12 million after two weeks of release. The film will not make it to $200 million domestically, but it already has $322.6 million internationally, including an estimated $83.7 million this past weekend. It will break even thanks to its international numbers, but it isn’t incredibly profitable.
Meanwhile, Dr Seuss’ The Grinch did the opposite dance with an estimated $30.21 million over three days and $42.02 million over five. It is already losing theaters and the post-holiday weekend will likely hurt its box office numbers. However, it has already made enough domestically to cover its entire production budget. It isn’t doing as well internationally. This past weekend it only managed a reported $7.6 million in 33 markets for a total of $35.3 million, but it has done so well domestically that if it didn’t earn another penny internationally, it will still break even early in its home market run.
Bohemian Rhapsody will earn fifth place with estimates of $13.86 million / $19.38 million over the weekend for a four-week total of $152.01 million. It is one of the biggest surprise hits at the box office this year.
On the other hand, Instant Family is doing mediocre business at best with an estimated $12.5 million / $17.4 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $35.8 million
The final wide release of the week is Robin Hood, which looks like a bomb. Studio estimates have it earning $9.13 million / $14.22 million over the weekend. Its reviews continue to sink, while it only managed a B from CinemaScore. I can see theater owners dropping the film as soon as December hits start to come out.
We find a few limited releases that have amazing estimates. The Favorite is earning an estimated $420,000 in just 4 theaters and if this holds, it will be the first 2018 release to earn more than $100,000 on the theater average chart. Shoplifters and The World Before Your Feet are both expected to be in the $10,000 club with estimated averages of $17,600 and $11,000 resepctively.
- Ralph Breaks the Internet Comparisons
- Creed II Comparisons
- Robin Hood Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Robin Hood, Ralph Breaks The Internet, Bohemian Rhapsody, Creed II, Instant Family, The Favourite, Manbiki kazoku, The World Before Your Feet