Weekend Prediction: Will Ralph Wreck the Competition?
November 21, 2018
It’s Thanksgiving long weekend, which means it is officially the start of the holiday blockbuster season. This year, three films are opening wide hoping to become hits. One of them, Ralph Breaks the Internet, could become the biggest hit of the month. Creed II is expected to top its predecessor during its five-day opening. Robin Hood is just hoping not to bomb in theaters. Both Green Book and The Front Runner were scheduled to expand wide, but neither will. In fact, The Front Runner isn’t even expanding semi-wide. This weekend last year, Coco opened with nearly $73 million during its five day weekend. Ralph Breaks the Internet likely won’t earn that much over the weekend, but it should come close. Additionally, Justice League earned $60 million during the five-day frame, which is very likely better than Creed II will perform. However, after that point, 2018’s depth becomes stronger than 2017’s depth and we should earn the small win in the year-over-year competition.
Ralph Breaks the Internet is the follow-up to Wreck-it Ralph, which came out in November of 2012. It did come out at the beginning of the month, so it isn’t a perfect comparison. This film’s reviews are 91% positive with an average score of 7.3 out of 10, compared to the 87% positive reviews of the previous film, but its average score was 7.5 out of 10. Both of those numbers are essentially the same, so I think the audience reactions will be the same as well. I don’t think the film will do as well as Coco did last year or Moana did the year before that. However, a five-day opening of $68 million is still a very good result.
The first Creed movie earned surprisingly strong reviews and $100 million domestically back in 2015. Creed II is expected to benefit from the previous film’s strong word of mouth and open faster at the box office. On the other hand, this film’s reviews are not as strong and this is a direct sequel, so it likely won’t have as long legs. It should still earn $100 million domestically after a $49 million five-day start.
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald should be right behind with $45 million over the five-day weekend. This will be more than enough to push it over $100 million domestically, but I don’t think it will be enough to reach $200 million in total.
Dr Seuss’ The Grinch does have to deal with direct competition, which will hurt its box office chances over the weekend. However, Thanksgiving is such a popular time to go to the movies, especially for families, that the film should still do well with just under $40 million during the five-day stretch.
Instant Family and Bohemian Rhapsody will likely be in a two-way race for fifth place, each earning about $16 million. Instant Family does have better reviews and it is more family oriented. However, this does mean it has more direct competition this week. I think the two films will trade places on the daily chart, possibly more than once, but in the end, Instant Family will end up on top as both films pull in $16 million over five days.
The final wide release of the week is Robin Hood, which might not crack $10 million over the five-day stretch. It likely won’t crack $10 million over the three-day weekend. The film is earning terrible reviews, it has weak buzz, and the competition is just too strong. On the high end, it could earn more than $15 million over five days, but I think $13 million is more likely.
- Ralph Breaks the Internet Comparisons
- Creed II Comparisons
- Robin Hood Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Robin Hood, Ralph Breaks The Internet, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Front Runner, Creed II, Instant Family, Green Book