Weekend Wrap-Up: Weekend Bests Estimates, Still Clobbered by Incredibles
June 18, 2019
There is some good news to report, as the weekend final numbers beat both the projections based on Friday estimates and Sunday’s estimates. There’s also some bad news. Even with this improvement, the weekend was really soft at the box office. Men in Black: International led the way with just $30.04 million during its opening weekend, while only two other films topped $10 million over the weekend. This left the overall box office down 18% from last weekend to just $135 million. This is 50% lower than the same weekend last year; a decline that we normally only see when there is a misalignment in a holiday. However, in this case, it was due to Incredibles 2, which earned more by itself than the total box office did this year. This has left 2019 further behind 2018 and it is now off last year’s pace by 7.0% or $370 million at $4.99 billion to $5.36 billion. Several weeks worth of gaining ground has gone in a single weekend.
Men in Black: International is by far the slowest opening film in the franchise earning just $30.04 million. It also had the weakest reviews of the week and only managed a B from CinemaScore, so I doubt its legs will be saving this film’s theatrical run. That said, it is also the cheapest of the three sequels with a budget of $110 million, so it won’t be a massive loss for Sony.
The Secret Life of Pets 2 fell 48% to $24.41 million over its second weekend of release for a two-week total of $92.65 million. On the one hand, this is less than the original earned during its opening weekend. On the other hand, it is more than it cost to make. This puts Universal in a weird place. The film will clearly make a solid profit; however, if they do make a third installment in the franchise and it drops as much as this one did, then it will very likely lose money.
Aladdin continues to surprise analysts. This past weekend it dipped just 30% to $17.31 million over the weekend for a total of $264.04 million after four weeks of release. It has a clear path to $300 million domestically, as long as Toy Story 4 doesn’t completely destroy it this coming weekend. If it managed close to $10 million this coming weekend, then it will get to $300 million domestically without needing a push from Disney.
Rocketman wasn’t expected to reach the top five, but it earned fourth place with $9.42 million for a total of $66.76 million after three weeks of release. It has already made enough money worldwide to pay for its $41 million production budget. Additionally, with its long legs, it should last long enough to break even early in its home market run.
Dark Phoenix was decimated at the box office down 72% to just $9.35 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $52.12 million. It could have made that much during its opening weekend and it still would have been a disappointment. Its reviews and its B minus from CinemaScore are just as important factors as so-called franchise fatigue.
Shaft missed the top five with $8.90 million during its opening weekend. Its reviews are not good, but its audience reaction has been much, much better earning an A from CinemaScore. Its theater average is low enough that it won’t last long enough in theaters for word-of-mouth to make a difference. That said, it could become a cult hit on the home market.
Late Night was even weaker earning $5.26 million over the weekend for a total of $5.57 million including its week-long run in limited release. This is much weaker than its reviews and still weaker than its B plus from CinemaScore. It is released by Amazon Studios, so maybe it will thrive on VOD on their platform.
The Dead Never Die missed the top ten with $2.54 million in 613 theaters. Its theater average is neither great nor awful. In other words, it is unlikely that theater owners will look at these numbers and be excited to book the movie if they haven’t already, but I don’t think theater owners currently showing the film will drop it as soon as possible. Furthermore, its reviews are well below expectations, so it is unlikely to grow at the box office.
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Filed under: Weekend Wrap-up, Toy Story 4, Shaft, The Secret Life of Pets 2, Dark Phoenix, Aladdin, Men in Black: International, Late Night, Rocketman, The Dead Don’t Die, Men in Black, The Secret Life of Pets