Can Doctor Sleep Wake Up the Box Office?

November 7, 2019

Doctor Sleep

It is not a banner week for stellar new releases. Doctor Sleep is earning good reviews, but not great reviews. Sadly, it is award-worthy compared to most of the other new releases. Last Christmas is earning mixed reviews, but that’s to be expected for a romantic comedy. The less said about Midway or Playing with Fire’s reviews, the better. This weekend last year, The Grinch opened with $67 million, which is likely more than all four new films will open with this year. In fact, last year’s number two film, Bohemian Rhapsody, will likely earn more than any one film will earn this year. 2019 is going to take a beating in the year-over-year competition.

Doctor Sleep is the latest adaptation of a Stephen King novel. The writer has had some misses at the box office over his career, a lot of misses, but he’s on a bit of a hot streak right now. I don’t think Doctor Sleep will live up to his biggest hits, but I think it will earn an easy first place with about $28 million. This start plus its solid reviews should give it better than average legs, but even with the holidays approaching, it won’t last long enough to get to the century mark.

Last Christmas is a romantic comedy, which is a genre that relies on clichés. Fans of this genre are a lot more forgiving of clichés than critics are, so it is not surprising that the film’s reviews are merely mixed. This won’t help the film’s box office numbers, but it won’t be a major detriment either. It has a shot at a $20 million, but even an $18 million opening will be good enough to earn a profit sometime during its open market run.

Midway is a World War II epic about the battle that turned the tide of the battle in the Pacific. The genre hasn’t been popular at the box office for a while and given this film’s reviews, this slump isn’t going to end just yet. On the positive side, the film wasn’t a terribly expensive movie to make, so a $16 million opening won’t be a disaster. It might even break even with this opening, if it can find an audience internationally.

Terminator: Dark Fate will fall from first to fourth with $13 million. I’ve seen multiple reports suggesting this movie will lose $100 million, perhaps more. This could be the end of the Terminator franchise, at least for a while before the inevitable remake / reboot.

Playing with Fire is a live-action family film starring John Cena. As popular as that actor is, this genre is always a risk at the box office. Furthermore, its reviews are the worst of the weekend and it has little chance of becoming a box office hit. It should open with about $9 million, which would give it fifth place. However, it is close enough that Joker might remain in the top five, if this film shows any weakness.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Terminator: Dark Fate, Midway, Doctor Sleep, Joker, Last Christmas, Playing with Fire, Terminator, John Cena, Stephen King