Weekend projections: Creed III smashes its way to $58-million-plus opening

March 5, 2023

Creed III

Creed III is off to a flying start in theaters this weekend, with United Artists projecting it will earn $58.658 million by the end of today. That’s easily the best 3-day opening for the Creed franchise (and also for a Rocky movie), and even tops the $56 million accumulated over five days by Creed II during the Thanksgiving Holiday in 2018.

Here’s how the domestic numbers look as of Sunday morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…



One notable aspect of Creed’s performance so far is that it has beaten our model’s prediction every time we’ve received new data through the weekend. The model originally predicted a $34.4-million opening before any numbers came in, then $40.9-million based on the film’s $5.45 million in previews on Thursday. On Saturday morning, the prediction increased to $50.3 million, thanks to an excellent $22.188 million on opening day. Today’s $58.658-million projection from United Artists comes on the back of an impressive $21.455 million for the film on Saturday. Taking into account the $5.45 million in previews, the film did 28% more business on Saturday than it did on Friday, suggesting it has good word of mouth. By way of comparison, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania picked up 17% more on its first Saturday, and Cocaine Bear 33%.

The story for Ant-Man this weekend continues to be disappointing, with just $12.471 million expected on its third weekend, which will take it to $186.8 million in total. It has slightly more internationally, with $233 million to date, and is performing roughly in line with Ant-Man and the Wasp overall.

Cocaine Bear is enjoying a strong hold and coming in about 8% ahead of expectations. It has $41.2 million to date in theaters, and should do very nicely in the home market over the Summer. Well enough to spawn Cocaine Bear 2? Maybe. Or perhaps a Cocaine [animal] franchise? Excuse me while I ask ChatGPT to see what it do with my Cocaine Shark concept…

Back in theaters, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba—To the Swordsmith Village will post around $10.1 million this weekend. That’s quite a bit behind the previous Demon Slayer release, Mugen Train, which picked up $22.8 million in April last year. It’s still a good number for an anime title.

The biggest disappointment this weekend is Operation Fortune: Ruse de guerre, which will come in with around $3.16 million. That’s the worst wide opening for Jason Statham since the much-derided In the Name of the King: A Dungeon Siege Tale in 2008, and Guy Ritchie’s worst wide opening ever. The film isn’t getting reviews, but something still went awry in the marketing.

- Studio weekend projections
- All-time top-grossing movies in North America
- All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash,

Filed under: Rocky, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba, Creed, Guy Ritchie