Weekend projections: Gran Turismo neck and neck with Barbie

August 27, 2023

The race to top the box office chart will go into the final lap this weekend, with Gran Turismo holding a fractional lead over Barbie based on Sunday-morning projections, but everything dependent on which film benefits the most from National Cinema Day. Gran Turismo is doing quite well through the weekend, most likely helped by a much more enthusiastic reception from audiences than it has had from critics; but Barbie is likely to get a really good boost from Sunday’s discounted ticket prices. Right now, the two films are expected to earn $17.3 million and $17.1 million respectively, but final earnings are especially uncertain, and we won’t know until tomorrow who will take the checkered flag.

Here’s how the domestic numbers look as of Sunday morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…

Gran Turismo took only $1.4 million from previews on Thursday, which our model thought could translate into an opening weekend as low as $12.4 million. So getting over $17 million is a good result for the film, and largely down to good word of mouth, it appears (its Rotten Tomatoes audience score currently stands at 98%).

Babie’s qualities are already well known, and its over-performance compared to our model’s Friday-morning prediction is all down to the $4 tickets being offered at movie theaters today. No-one knows exactly how that will translate into revenue, but Warner Bros. is predicting a 45% increase from Saturday for both Barbie and Blue Beetle. For Barbie that would represent a 23% jump from last Sunday. Sony expects Gran Turismo to have just a 6% bump from Saturday’s numbers today. If that proves to be conservative, Turismo could end up with a more comfortable win than currently expected, but it’s all in the lap of the cinema gods at this point.

The effects of National Cinema Day are apparent all the way down the chart this weekend. Studio projections, which are based on their internal models plus early ticket sales for Sunday, have Sound of Freedom, Oppenheimer and Meg 2: The Trench benefiting most from the ticket discounts, compared to our model, with Barbie close behind. That’s about the mix of films one would expect to benefit most in my opinion—films that have been around for a while and that a family or group of friends might decide to watch together at a bargain price.

This weekend’s new releases are benefiting less from the discounts. The Hill will end right in line with our prediction. As expected, it had a high multiplier from its $110,000 in Thursday previews. Retribution is more disappointing, with its expected $3.345 million debut very similar to the openings of Memory and Blacklight, both of which opened early last year when theaters were struggling more than they are now. Three and half million looks like it might be the new normal for Liam Neeson action movies.

Golda won’t make the top 10 this weekend, but will come in with a respectable $1.7 million. That’s just a fraction short of the $1.9 million our model predicted. The most notable result outside the top 10 this weekend, however, comes from Bottoms, which is projected to earn $516,254 from just 10 theaters. That will give it the 4th-highest theater average of 2023 so far.

Speaking of records, Barbie will have the 9th-best 6th weekend of all time if its projection holds up. It is, by the way, now neck-and-neck with Avatar: The Way of Water, with $594.8 million earned at the end of its 6th weekend compared to Avatar’s $598.4 million. It looks as though Way of Water will win that particular race, but Barbie should make it well past $650 million domestically. See our full comparison chart here.

- Studio weekend projections
- All-time top-grossing movies in North America
- All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com

Filed under: Liam Neeson