Weekend projections: Argylle stays top on dismal weekend in theaters

February 11, 2024

Argylle

With Lisa Frankenstein bombing, the distraction of the Super Bowl, poor weather in the Southeast, and no mainstream Oscar contender that hasn’t already played out, this will be the worst weekend at the box office in North America since December, 2022, and most likely the fourth-worst weekend since the post-pandemic era started on Memorial Day, 2021. After a poor debut last weekend, and a middling hold this weekend, Argylle will retain top spot on the North American chart more-or-less by default.

Here’s how the domestic numbers look as of Sunday morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…



Argylle is coming in about 10% behind our model’s prediction, which is largely due to very low expectations for the film as it goes up agains the Super Bowl today. In truth, a 63% decline for a film like this going up against football’s biggest day in its second weekend in theaters isn’t a terrible result. But still falling short of $30 million in total at this stage would be a disaster for a normal $200-million film. Even for Apple, it’s hard to see how Argylle really moves the needle, given they already have Ghosted and The Family Plan on their playlist. To their credit, they at least put Argylle in theaters.

Internationally, the numbers for Argylle are moving ahead of its North American performance, but it will end the weekend with just $31.3 million overseas, and $60.1 million worldwide. It best territory is unsurprisingly the United Kingdom, where it will end the weekend with $4.7 million in total.

Lisa Frankenstein’s audience is reportedly 61% female and 71% under 35 years old, which is about as expected. In theory, that should protect it against a massive drop today, but its numbers have been poor enough already that a slightly better Sunday won’t help. Its CinemaScore, running at a B, is not too bad, but not good enough for word of mouth to kick in significantly either.

The remaining projections for the weekend are all assuming a sharp downtick on Sunday, with films generally falling between 10% and 20% behind our model’s Friday prediction. The exception to that is The Chosen: Season 4, Episodes 1–3, which will end the weekend with $12.6 million or so. It’s running slightly behind the show’s previous two theatrical outings, but it’s catching up. With episodes 4 to 6 coming out this Thursday, it will probably end right in line with the franchise average of $14 million or so. That’s another impressive performance. Whether releasing a trilogy in theaters over the course of a month is a good strategy is something we’ll know in a couple more weeks.

Also of note this weekend, Dune’s return to theaters is a minor hit, with unofficial projections that it will make about $1.7 million. Curiously, Warner Bros. didn’t announce numbers this morning, but hopefully they’ll put something official out tomorrow.

Anyone But You, meanwhile, is having a bit of a resurgence for Valentine’s Day, and will pass $80 million and $90 million internationally this weekend. Its $170 million worldwide total takes it past Ticket to Paradise to become the highest-grossing romantic comedy worldwide since the pandemic. (Our numbers for Ticket to Paradise will be updated to reflect that shortly.)

- Studio weekend projections
- All-time top-grossing movies in North America
- All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Filed under: The Chosen