Weekend Predictions: Will the X-Men Opening be Remembered in the Future
It is Memorial Day long weekend and the box office is looking strong. X-Men: Days of Future Past should dominate the box office chart and there are some who think it will have the best opening of the year so far. Blended is playing the role of counter-programing this week and should do well in that role opening in third place. Meanwhile, the rest of the top five will be filled with Godzilla, Neighbors, and The Amazing Spider-Man 2, all of which should still pull in $10 million or more. By comparison, this weekend last year, there were six films that earned more than $10 million over the four-day weekend, led by Fast and Furious 6, which earned a four-day opening of $117.04 million There are some who think X-Men: Days of Future Past will top that figure. I really hope so. However, even if it does, last year was a record-breaking Memorial Day long weekend and I don't think 2014 will match it.
X-Men: Days of Future Past is looking to become the first film to open with more than $100 million over its three-day weekend. There are some who are predicting that, but I'm not convinced this will happen. There are some positive signs, including being part of a franchise that has pulled in more than $1 billion domestically and $2 billion worldwide. However, there are definitely signs of Franchise Fatigue setting in. The film's pre-release buzz is great, while the reviews are even better. On the high end, it could crack $100 million over the three-day weekend and pull in about $125 million over four. I want it to reach that figure, but I think being a little more conservative is warranted here. I'm going with $95 million over the three day weekend for a total opening of $115 million. Even on the low end, the film should top $100 million over four days, which should be enough to make the studio happy.
After last week's massive opening, Godzilla will be pushed into second place, but should still be a major factor at the box office. The holiday should help it hold on better than most similar films, but it is dealing with direct competition that is earning better reviews. It should pull in just over $50 million over four days, which should keep the studio happy.
Blended is the third time Drew Barrymore and Adam Sandler have teamed up in a romantic comedy. The first two, The Wedding Singer and 50 First Dates, averaged just over $100 million domestically and I think Blended will improve upon that average. Granted, its reviews are awful, but that's didn't stop Grown Ups 2 from reaching the century mark at the box office. I think it will open with $26 million over the three-day weekend and just over $32 million over four. This is a good start for a film that reportedly cost $45 million to make, and since Adam Sandler's films tend to have better than average legs and the summer is just getting started, it should last long enough to reach nine figures.
Neighbors should reach $100 million either really late on Thursday or early on Friday. Either way, that should be enough to break even. Additionally, over the weekend, it should add another $15 / $19 million and $150 million isn't out of the question.
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 should round out the top five with $11 million to $12 million over the four-day weekend. It will remain about a week away from reaching $200 million, but fortunately it has performed better internationally.
Date posted: 2014-05-22