This graph shows Alden Ehrenreich’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
Solo was the third Star Wars film to come out in approximately 18 months. It also had serious behind-the-scenes issues that resulted in $100 millions worth of reshoots, according to some reports. It missed expectations, both at the box office and with critics. Is it the weakest installment in the Disney era? If so, is it still worth checking out?
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April was all about Avengers: Infinity War, which earned about as much during its opening weekend as the next two biggest films, A Quiet Place and Rampage, will earn in total. However, moving Infinity War to April has left a big gap for the first two weeks of May. It isn’t until Deadpool 2 debuts that we have a potential $100 million movie, while the week after Solo: A Star Wars Story closes the month on a strong note. Fortunately, both of those films are expected to earn more than $100 million during their opening weekends alone and combined could earn over $700 million domestically. Last May, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 helped the month get off to a fast start, but it was the only monster hit of the month. Infinity War opening a week early will mean the month will start slower, in terms of new releases, but Infinity War’s record-breaking debut should help 2018 come out ahead in the end.
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October turned out to be a mixed month. On the one hand, not one movie earned $100 million, or even came close. However, it was also a more steady month than last October and the last two weeks really helped 2016 in the year-over-year comparisons. In November, we have five films with at least a shot at $100 million, three of which should have no trouble getting to at least $200 million. A little while ago, I thought Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them would be the biggest hit of the month, but the buzz took a hit recently. More on that below. Meanwhile, Doctor Strange’s reviews are currently 90% positive and that should help it out at the box office. The third very likely $200 million hit is Moana. There is certainly precedent for an animated movie to be a monster hit at this time of year, but there is also a lot of competition. Last November was similar in strength, with five films that earned more than $100 million and two films that earned more than $200 million. None earned more than $300 million, so that’s the goal for this November. If we can get one $300 million and / or three $200 million movies over the month, then it will be seen as a victory.
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For the most part, January was a really good month and 2013 got off to a really good start. I'm not so sure about February, on the other hand. There's only one film that has a statistically significant shot at $100 million, A Good Day to Die Hard, but I'm a little concerned that it won't live up to expectations. The franchise has been around a long time and it is possible that the target audience has either moved on or are too young to remember when these films were huge at the box office. The film I'm most looking forward to seeing is Warm Bodies, which is earning amazing early reviews (the keyword there is "early"), but it is too high-concept to be a major hit. Last February, there were a coupleof films that topped $100 million, plus a few other midlevel hits. I would like to think that would also be the case this year, but I have to be more cautious than that. The evidence points to a weak month ahead, for the most part.
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