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Argo Predicted as Best Picture, Awards to Be Spread Far and Wide

February 24th, 2013

Voting is closed in our annual Predict the Academy Awards contest, and Argo is the clear favorite to pick up the Best Picture award, based on the opinion of nearly 500 entrants. Ben Affleck's thriller took an impressive 80% of the vote, more than six times the score of Lincoln, which took second place in the poll. Coincidentally, the contest has predicted the winner of the Best Picture Oscar 80% of the time in the 15 years we've been running it. Quite a few other categories have strong favorites, but there are also some really close calls, and it looks as though the awards will be shared by several films tonight.

- Votes in Each Category
- Predicted Winners in Each Category

The biggest favorite in any category is Amour, which received a 97% vote share for Best Foreign Language Film. Daniel Day-Lewis isn't far behind, with 96% of the votes for Best Actor, and Anne Hathaway gets a 93% score for Best Supporting Actress. The only other category with a 90% score or better is Best Song, with Adele's theme for Skyfall heavily favored.

Steven Spielberg and Jennifer Lawrence both received 69% of the votes in their categories (Directing and Best Actress respectively), so can be considered clear front runners. The other major categories are all much more closely fought.

Wreck-It Ralph gets 50% of the votes for Best Animated Feature, marginally ahead of Brave. That category looks like a toss-up, and our 90%+ (10 out of 11) record for Animated Feature looks under threat.

Tommy Lee Jones picks up 45% of the votes for Best Supporting Actor, but Robert De Niro and Christoph Waltz could both snatch a win in that category, according to The Numbers readers.

Given the weight of support behind Argo for Best Picture, it is quite surprising to see it only get 58% of the votes for Best Adapted Screenplay. Lincoln is again the second favorite in that category.

Django Unchained gets 53% of the votes for Best Original Screenplay, with Amour and Zero Dark Thirty looking for possible upsets.

Overall, no one film looks likely to dominate the awards. Argo, Lincoln, Les Miserables and Life of Pi are all predicted to win three times (with the last of the four enjoying wins for Visual Effects, Cinematography and Original Score), and the only Best Picture nominee that looks likely to get shut out completely is Beasts of the Southern Wild. Its best category is Adapted Screenplay, and even there it gets less than 2% of the vote.

- Votes in Each Category
- Predicted Winners in Each Category

Filed under: Analysis, Django Unchained, Amour, Robert De Niro, Ben Affleck, Daniel Day-Lewis, Anne Hathaway, Tommy Lee Jones, Jennifer Lawrence, Steven Spielberg, Christoph Waltz