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Weekend Wrap-Up: Croods Club Competition

March 25th, 2013

As expected, The Croods earned first place, but it didn't dominate as much as many thought it would, because Olympus Has Fallen did better than expected. The overall box office rose 29% from last weekend reaching $139 million. Unfortunately, again as expected, The Hunger Games earned more this weekend last year than the entire box office earned this year. The year-over-year decline was a massive 35%. That's stunning. That usually only happens when there is a misalignment in holidays. Year-to-date, 2013 is now behind 2012 by a 13% margin at $2.06 billion to $2.36 billion. Given the films coming out later this year and the films that came out last year, I just don't see a pathway to victory for 2013.

The Croods was actually a little bit stronger than expected opening with $43.64 million. Granted, this is only a fraction of what The Hunger Games opened with last year, but it is the 15th best March weekend and 12th best March opening. With reviews that good, really good compared to a lot of kids movies, and Easter coming up next weekend, it should have strong legs. I don't think it will have the same legs as How to Train Your Dragon, but getting to $150 million is a solid goal.

Olympus Has Fallen's reviews were barely above 50% positive, but it still beat expectations with $30.37 million. It also had a better than expected internal multiplier, which could bode well for its legs going forward. $100 million will be really hard to reach, but it can't be dismissed as a possibility.

Oz the Great and Powerful fell to third place with $21.57 million over the weekend for a total of $177.10 million after three. It should become the first film of 2013 to reach $200 million and should do so by this time next week.

The Call came within a rounding error of expectations with $8.90 million over the weekend for a total of $31.11 million after two. It reportedly cost just $13 million to make, so the studio has already recouped that cost. Now it just needs to earn back its P&A budget. It won't be able to do that domestically, but it should be able to make enough internationally to cover the cost.

Admission also opened within a rounding error of expectations with $6.15 million over the weekend, but it was on the low end. The reviews were merely mixed, which explains its box office woes, but with Tina Fey and Paul Rudd leading the cast, it should have performed better than this.

There have been a number of art house horror films (Let the Right One In, for example) and even some art house action films (like Run Lola Run). However, there haven't been a lot of Art House T&A films. Maybe that's why Spring Breakers didn't quite reach the level I was expecting. It is just too strange a beast to sell to mainstream audiences. That said, it still managed sixth place with $4.86 million in 1,104 theaters over the weekend for a total of $5.27 million. Good reviews probably won't be enough to overcome the strangeness of the movie and the legs will likely be weak. However, it should still finish with between $10 million and $15 million, which is great for a film that reportedly cost just $2 million to make.

The only sophomore film not in the top five was The Incredible Burt Wonderstone, which fell 58% to just $4.32 million over the weekend for a total of $17.41 million after two. Hopefully it didn't cost a lot to make, but there's little hope the studio will make a profit on this one.


Filed under: Weekend Box Office, The Croods, Oz the Great and Powerful, Spring Breakers, Admission, The Incredible Burt Wonderstone, Olympus Has Fallen, The Call, Tina Fey, Paul Rudd