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Weekend Predictions: Turbo Gets Off to a Head Start on Weekend Competition

July 18th, 2013

There are four new releases coming out this week, but there is a wide range of predictions for some of these films. Turbo opened on Wednesday to mostly good reviews and some think it will earn first place over the weekend. Red 2's early reviews are weaker than anticipated, but it still has an impressive cast and could come out on top. The Conjuring is earning some of the best reviews of any wide release opening this summer. It is a horror film and those rarely open in first place in the summer, but the buzz is growing and it could be a surprise hit. Then there's R.I.P.D., which has bad buzz and no reviews. It will likely not make the top five. This weekend last year was the weekend The Dark Knight Rises opened and there's no chance 2013 will come out on top on the year-over-year comparison. In fact, the total box office this year might be lower than The Dark Knight Rises opening alone.

I really don't know what film will be the number one movie this weekend. I thought it would be Red 2, but I also thought the film would be earning overall positive reviews. Meanwhile, Turbo's Wednesday opening was weaker than expected. I'm starting to think The Conjuring will top the chart over the weekend. It has a similar target demographic to The Purge, and that film opened in first place with $34 million. I think that's overly optimistic, but given its reviews, it could earn first place with $27 million.

Red 2's box office prospects are falling right alongside its reviews. At the beginning of the month, I figured the film hat a shot at $100 million. I also figured the reviews would be close to 70% positive and not barely more than 40% positive. At the moment, its Tomatometer Score is just 42% positive, which is a 30-point drop from its predecessor's score. It should still open faster than the original film, but thanks to the sequel effect, it will fall much faster. Look for a second place opening with $25 million, but much shorter legs and a lower overall box office.

Despicable Me 2 will be pushed to third place with $23 million, but that's still a sizable amount for its third weekend of release. Its running tally will reach $275 million, putting it on pace to surpass $300 million before long. It might drop out of the top five before then, on the other hand.

Turbo opened in first place on Wednesday, barely, with $5.55 million compared to $5.23 million for Despicable Me 2. It will undoubtedly drop to second place on Thursday, while slipping further over the weekend. This is disappointing given its reviews, which are great for a kids movie. I'm going with fourth with $21 million over the weekend and a quick fade once The Smurfs 2 comes out.

There should be a close race for fifth place between Grown Ups 2 and Pacific Rim. Just looking at the reviews, Grown Ups 2 should fall apart this weekend, but Grown Ups was significantly better and it had strong legs. Most likely, it will earn fifth place with $18 million, but if it slips more than that, then Pacific Rim could grab the final spot in the top five.

Finally we get to R.I.P.D. This movie has been plagued by bad buzz for a long time. Its first trailer was ripped apart as a Men in Black clone, and it is hard to dismiss those complaints. If the reviews were really strong, the film might have had a chance at the box office, but the studio is blocking all reviews till Friday, which is never a good sign. It will likely miss the top five with $13 million over the weekend, which is only 10% of what it cost to make. The studio will likely lose a bundle on this one.


Filed under: Weekend Preview, R.I.P.D., Turbo, Despicable Me 2, Pacific Rim, RED 2, Grown Ups 2, The Conjuring, The Purge