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Weekend Predictions: How Bad Will the Box Office Be?

October 25th, 2013

So far October has been a bad month at the box office. Granted, Gravity should crack $200 million over the weekend; however, week after week after week we've seen declines in the year-over-year comparison. Will that losing streak finally end this weekend? We do have some good news. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa should earn $30 million, more or less, easily topping the chart this weekend and earning much more than last year's number one film Argo. In fact, it might earn more than all four new releases from last year. Additionally, The Counselor isn't expected to be the biggest hit, but it still could earn more than Argo did this time last year and should earn more than the best new releases, Cloud Atlas, did. Are we finally going to see 2013's slump end? I really hope so, because 2013 is not that far ahead of 2012's pace and if the slump doesn't end soon, it could find itself slipping behind last year's pace.

Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa is the latest film in the Jackass franchise. So far these films have performed very well at the box office and the most recent one, Jackass 3D, earned more than $100 million at the box office on a $20 million budget. This film has a narrative to it, unlike the previous films, so I'm not entirely sure how well this one will do in comparison. It's reviews are good, but not great. Then again, I wasn't expected great reviews, so this won't negatively affect my prediction. On the low end, the film could struggle to get to $25 million, while on the high end it could clear $35 million with ease. I'm going with $31 million, which seems a rather save bet.

Gravity should finally relinquish first place on the box office chart, but it should still have a rather impressive weekend. The film should pull in about $22 million, which will give it just over $200 million by the end of Sunday. That is a major milestone, one that most people thought it wouldn't reach.

Captain Phillips is also chasing a major milestone and how well it holds up this weekend will go along way in determining if it will get to $100 million or not. There are some who think it will top $12 million over the weekend, which would make the century mark an easy target, but there are also some who think it will dip below $10 million. Just over $11 million is the safest bet, which will keep it on pace for $100 million, but barely.

The Counselor is the other wide release of the week, but its box office chances took a hit with its reviews. Given its pedigree, I was expecting 75% positive reviews. Instead, its Tomatometer Score is a mere 33% positive. It still does have an impressive cast and it is debuting in more than 3,000 theaters, so it has a shot at third place with $15 million. On the other hand, if people decide to read reviews before they head to the theaters, they might decide to watch Captain Phillips or Gravity again rather than see this film for the first time. This could result in a sub-$10 million opening. I'm going with just under $11 million.

Carrie should round out the top five with just under $8 million. This isn't a bad decline for a horror remake with mixed reviews, but it will need help internationally and / or on the home market to break even.


Filed under: Weekend Preview, Gravity, Captain Phillips, Carrie, The Counselor, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, Jackass