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Weekend Predictions: Sky's the Limit

November 8th, 2012

There's only one wide release this weekend, but Skyfall could become one of the biggest hits of the holiday season. Nearly all analysts assume it will be the fastest opening Bond film of all time. It might make more that last year's top three films made combined. Wreck-It-Ralph should still be strong at the box office, while Flight should hold on better than most other films do. Overall it should be a very good week at the box office.

Skyfall is the 23rd film in the Bond franchise, or perhaps the 24th if you count Never Say Never Again. (I don't think anyone considers the 1967 Casino Royale to be a real James Bond movie.) This franchise has lasted so long because they've been entertaining. This film is a little different. A lot of critics are saying it's not just entertaining, but it might be Oscar-worthy. I don't think it is going to win the most prestigious awards, but it could pick up nominations for cinematography, sound, etc. As for its box office chances, those are just as strong. Internationally, the film topped $300 million after less than two full weeks of release and it is the highest grossing film in the U.K. all year. Even on the low end, analysts are expecting more than $70 million. On the high end, $90 million isn't out of the question. I'm going with $82 million, which is a little higher than most, but this is an event picture and the reviews suggest it is better than the hype.

Wreck-It-Ralph is holding up well during the weekdays and despite the incredible competition this weekend, it should hold up well during its sophomore stint. The amount of crossover appeal between Skyfall and this film is limited, while the reviews are stellar. It should earn more than $30 million, perhaps even $35 million. I'm going to be a little more cautious and go with $32 million. That will still lift its running tally to $92 million, which means it will hit the century mark by next Friday.

Flight started off really well last weekend with the best per theater average, not only in the top ten, but overall. It is getting a bump in its theater count, but not by as much as I thought it would (less than 200 additional theaters). It does have great reviews and its target audience should stick around this weekend. Look for $15 million over the weekend, more or less, and $47 million to $48 million after two.

Argo should stick around the top five one more weekend with about $7 million over the weekend for a running tally of $86 million. It remains on pace to reach $100 million, but it will be out of the top five before then. It might be out of the top ten.

The Man with the Iron Fists and Taken 2 should battle for fifth place with between $3 and $4 million each. I think The Man has a slight edge here, but it should be close.


Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Man with the Iron Fists, Taken 2, Skyfall, Wreck-It Ralph, Argo, Flight