One Missed Film
January 4, 2008
With only one new release this weekend, and a sub-par one at that, holdovers will dominate the box office this weekend, just like they dominated the box office last weekend.
The same group of holdovers might dominate the box office next weekend as well.
2008 is starting off really slow.
National Treasure 2: Book of Secrets should earn the hat trick this weekend as there's little to no competition for top spot.
The only real question is how well it will hold up post-holiday.
A 50% drop-off would be weak, but understandable, while some are expecting just a 40% drop-off.
This gives the film a range of $18 million to $22 million over the weekend, with the higher end slightly more likely.
Expect $21 million over the weekend, which might be enough to match the original's total box office by the end of the weekend.
Even if it doesn't make it there by Sunday, it will hit it on Monday or Tuesday.
There is even less direct competition for Alvin and the Chipmunks as it shares almost no common ground with the only wide release, and that should help it hold on even better.
A 40% drop-off would give it just under $18 million over the weekend, and a shot at first place, as well as nearly $180 million during its run.
At this point, even a 50% drop-off this weekend would lead to a $200 million box final on a production budget of just $55 million.
The only thing holding up a sequel at this point is the WGA strike.
I Am Legend finished 2007 less than $700,000 shy of $200 million, a milestone it crossed on New Year's Day, the 19th day of its run.
This isn't the record.
In fact, it is nowhere near the record, but it is a strong run that should continue this weekend.
Like the rest of the pure holdovers in the top five, this film is looking at a 40 - 50% drop-off this weekend, which would give it anywhere from just under $14 million to just over $16 million.
Splitting the difference gives us a prediction of $15 million and makes $250 million the final goal.
Juno is expanding yet again this weekend, seeing its theater count nearly double from just under 1,000 to just over 1,800.
This could result in a very soft drop off to just over $8 million, or even result in serious growth with some estimating the film will earn $15 million over the weekend.
If it can reach that high end, then the film will be tracking at $100 million, or more, for its final box office total.
Even a more realistic weekend box office of $12 million would give the film $45 million in total, which is more than enough to pay for its production budget.
The final film in the top five should be Charlie Wilson's War, which will add roughly $7 million over the weekend.
This will give it just over $7 million during its run, which is a disappointing total for a film with such star power.
Finally we get to the only wide release of the weekend, One Missed Call.
The film is not being screened for critics in general, but this shouldn't come as a shock to anyone.
It's not even surprising that none of the early reviews are positive.
Nor should anyone be amazed that there's already talk that this could be the worst movie of the year.
All of that is expected, but even so, the buzz is nonexistent and there's little chance it will reach the top five during its opening.
It might not even reach $5 million.
Look for $6 million over the weekend and less than $20 million in total.
Filed under: I am Legend, National Treasure: Book of Secrets, Alvin and the Chipmunks, Juno, Charlie Wilson’s War, One Missed Call