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Hooking Up

February 11th, 2005

It's Valentine's Day weekend, sort of. Valentine's Day is actually on Monday, but I don't think that's going to stop a lot of people from seeing a date movie this weekend. With that extra boost we should have a first mega-hit of the year as romantic comedies should reign supreme.

Hitch marks the first time Will Smith has the lead in a romantic comedy, which is strange since his charm would make him an obvious choice for such roles. His box office draw is undeniable, but since most of his roles have been in Sci-Fi and Action films, it might not translate into this genre. That is the only question mark with regards to this film's chances at the box office. But with reviews that are better than expected, the film should have no trouble bringing in more than $30 million, and $40 million isn't out of the question. Split the difference and we get $35 million prediction.

Pooh's Heffalump Movie should have a very similar box office run as Piglet's Big Movie and The Tigger Movie. With a better ad campaign than the former and improved reviews over the latter, the film should be able to capture second place with $9 million. Add in reasonable legs and the film should be well on its way to profitability by the time it hits the home market.

For Boogeyman it's a simple equation of bad reviews plus horror genre equals steep second weekend decline. There's almost nothing that can prevent that from happening. However, a stronger than expected opening, plus a low production budget equals profit, so the studio should be more than happy with a $8 million sophomore stint.

With The Wedding Date beating expectations by such a huge amount and Valentine's Day landing on Monday, I really thought it would get a boost to its theater count. That didn't happen, and the direct competition with Hitch could hurt it where it counts the most, at the box office. This weekend it should bring in just over $7 million, which is a 35% drop-off - that's strong in this day and age.

Two films will be in a battle for fifth place with Are We There Yet? and Million Dollar Baby ending in a virtual tie with just under $7 million. Both film are already a success, the former based on its box office performance, and the latter based on its award season performance.

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Filed under: Hitch, Million Dollar Baby, Boogeyman, The Wedding Date, Pooh's Heffalump Movie, Are We There Yet?