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Will Elizabethtown be Fogged In?

October 14th, 2005

A trio of wide releases hit the theatres today, but none of them seem to have what it takes to become a breakout hit. With very few strong contenders at the box office this weekend, however, all three should still make it into the top five.

The most likely candidate for the number one spot this weekend is Elizabethtown, Cameron Crowe's new movie. Reviews are very poor - the worst in Cameron Crowe's career, in fact. Many critics complain that the first half of the film is a complete mess and while the second is much better, it is too late by then. Even so, it should start out reasonably well with $15 million, but won't have the same legs as his previous films.

The only other film to have a legitimate shot at top spot is The Fog, the latest remake of a John Carpenter film. Reviews are... well... nonexistent as the film was not screened for critics, which is never a good sign. But films like this are not made to please critics, and the ad campaign is strong enough for an opening in the low tens, say $14 million. Expect really short legs.

The first holdover in the top five will be Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit, which didn't live up to expectations despite the best reviews in a long, long time. Excellent reviews plus a young target demographic should equal strong legs and a small drop-off this weekend of about 33%. That leaves the film with just shy of $11 million over the weekend and puts it on target for $60 million overall.

The last wide release of the weekend is Domino. The film is earning the scorn of most critics and the advertising campaign hasn't been particularly convincing either. This, plus the lower theatre count, will leave the film in fourth place with $8 million over the weekend and just over $20 million during its run.

Flightplan's leggy run will continue this weekend with just under $7 million allowing the film to spend one more weekend in the top five.

Also of note, Dreamer: Inspired by a True Story is having a sneak peak on Sunday in nearly 1,000 theatres.

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Filed under: Flightplan, Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit, Dreamer: Inspired by a True Story, The Fog, Elizabethtown, Domino