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Bill Hopes to Make a Killing at the Box Office

April 16th, 2004

For the first time this month we don't have an overload of new movies opening up. However, the two wider releases we do have are in direct competition for the same audience, so the same ticket splitting will still happen. That will make it hard for both films to succeed. There's an addition film opening sort of wide, but at just 1000 theatres don't expect it to make much of an impact.

The movie industry is a very strange business; predicting trends a few months in advanced is almost impossible and even the best of us can be fooled on almost a weekly basis. So it's nice when a movie like Kill Bill: Volume 2 comes along. Volume 1 came out such a short time ago, and the reviews for Volume 1 and Volume 2 are so similar that you can almost use the predictions for the first one. There are a couple of details to take into consideration, firstly the sequel effect means it should start stronger and drop faster. Secondly, it's opening in slightly fewer theatres. These things should mostly balance out leaving a $23 million weekend and a $70 million total box office.

The Punisher is destined to have the worst box office of any Marvel Comic movie since, well since the Dolph Lundgren version came out in 1989. This is partially due to the winning streak marvel in on and partially due to the weakness in this movie. That and having John Travolta in the movie doesn't help; he's been box office poison since 1997 with just one hit in his last 10 or so movies. Look for a first weekend take of about $15 million, which given it's budget of only $33 million, it’s not such a bad start.

The post holiday weekend is usually pretty bad for movies, however, the Easter weekend usually isn't that big for movies. However, The Passion of the Christ isn't most movies. It should see a large drop-off this weekend and land at $7 million pushing it ahead of Jurassic Park.

Hellboy will spend its last weekend in the top 5 with $6 million. Enough to cross $50 million, but not enough to be a box office success.

Johnson Family Vacation should manage a second weekend in the top five with just $5 million. Last weekend that figure wouldn't have been enough to make it in the top ten.

Lastly we have Connie and Carla, which is being dumped on the market in just 1013 theatres. Connie and Carla is Nia Vardalos' follow-up to the surprise smash hit My Big Fat Greek Wedding. It's good that this movie is being released while Passion of the Christ is still on the charts, since the two films share something in common. They both completely surprised analysts and had very strange box office runs. My Big Fat Greek Wedding opened in limited released earning only $5,531 per theatre, which would normal indicate a very short run. Fast forward nearly a year later and 17 weeks in the top ten and it's the number one independent movie of all time. I don't expect this film to earn that kind of money, in fact, I'm not sure it will make the top ten. The reviews are a lot weaker and it probably won't have the same per theatre average My Big Fat Greek Wedding. Look for an opening of $4 million and a short run in the theatres.

Also of note, again, 13 Going On 30 is having another sneak peak this Saturday in about 1100 theatres.

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Filed under: The Passion of the Christ, Kill Bill: Volume 2, Hellboy, The Punisher, Johnson Family Vacation, Connie & Carla, 13 Going On 30