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Busy Labor Day Long Weekend

September 3rd, 2004

It's another weekend with lots of movies, but again the average theatre count is under 2000. But unlike last weekend when three of the four films were brutally attacked by critics, this week we have a perfect record, all four films are being brutally attacked by critics. At least the ones the critics got to see. I figure this weekend one film will do enough to be considered a success, or sorts, two will fail, and one will fail spectacularly.

Even with four films opening this weekend, Hero should have a good shot to repeat on top. If it does it will be the first film to repeat on top spot since Spider-Man 2. Look for just shy of $10 million for the 3-day weekend and just over $12 million overall. And that is still showing better legs than most films this year.

The Cookout opens in just 1300 theatres tonight, and without being screened for critics. That's never a good sign. Even so, the film targets a demographic normally under-serviced market. So it should perform well and take in $8 million over the 3-day weekend and $10 million overall. That's not a bad start considering its budget.

The family friendly nature of Princess Diaries 2: Royal Engagement should help it maintain most of its box office this weekend. Look for $7 million over the 3-day weekend. However, on Monday it should really shine taking in $3 million.

Vanity Fair didn't fair as well as I thought it would on Wednesday, but there's always the chance that was a result of lack of marketing. However, that can't entirely explain the situation as the reviews, which are better than before, are still average at best. So reducing the predictions to $5 million over the 3-day weekend and $1.5 million on Monday.

Wicker Park is opening in the most theaters, but that won't really help its chances. Poor reviews, mostly unknown cast and an ad campaign that can best be described as invisible will hamper its chances. It should take in $5 million over the 3-day weekend and $6 million overall.

Paparazzi is another film that wasn't screened for critics, but it has a few reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, all negative. Like I said in the intro, one film should bomb spectacularly this weekend, and I think this film will be the one. $4 million over the 3-day weekend plus just shy of $1 million on Monday won't be enough for it to finish in the top five.

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Filed under: The Princess Diaries 2: Royal Engagement, Jet Li's Hero, Vanity Fair, Paparazzi, Wicker Park, The Cookout