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Hulk’s Set to Win Weekend and Smash Records

June 20th, 2003

While three movies are opening wide, only one is making any news.

Everyone is predicting the Hulk will easily win this weekend, and most analysts agree it will break the record for a June opening currently held by Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me at $54.9 million. But how well will it compare to the other monster openers of 2003. Some are predicting The Hulk will beat fellow Marvel Movie X-Men 2. But I think matching Finding Nemo is a more likely scenario. $69 million for an opening weekend, and based on the good reviews, enough legs to get well past $200 million.

The week to week drop-off for Finding Nemo was even better this week than last week. So look for an even smaller drop off this weekend. A box office of $20 million and second place for the year this weekend, after breaking $200 million Wednesday.

Speaking of $200 million, Bruce Almighty was able to cross that milestone on Thursday, completely a week which say it lose very little of its box office. If this trend continues, and it should despite losing nearly 400 theatres, Bruce Almighty should earn $9 million and could overtake X-Men 2 for third place this year.

2 Fast 2 Furious didn’t drop quite as badly during the mid-week, but it is losing nearly 10% of its theatres in just it’s third week. So another 60% drop at the box office should be expected. Still, this leaves it at $8 million for the weekend and just shy of $100 million total box office.

Rugrats Go Wild has held up surprisingly well during the midweek, and a drop of less than 40% could help this movie make a profit, eventually. Look for $7 million on the box office and enough legs to get at least close to $40 million.

Alex and Emma is the second new movie opening wide this weekend. On paper, this movie should be a sure hit. But the terrible reviews, including 0% from the cream-of-the-crop suggest it will be anything but a hit. Look for it to get worse numbers than other ‘also ran’ comedies like The In-Laws and Down With Love. About $6 million and missing the top five is in store.

The last new movie released this week is From Justin to Kelly, which wasn’t screened for critics. Some are comparing it to The Real Cancun; another reality TV turned movie. I think it’s safe to assume From Justin to Kelly will not do quite as badly, with an opening weekend roughly the same as The Real Cancun’s total gross. Or about $4 million, but it may not make the top ten.

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Filed under: X2, Hulk, Rugrats Go Wild, The In-Laws, Down with Love, Alex & Emma, From Justin to Kelly, The Real Cancun, 2 Fast 2 Furious