Follow us on

Weekend Wrap-Up: San Andreas Shakes Up Box Office

June 2nd, 2015

San Andreas

The post-holiday weekend was softer than the holiday weekend, which is to be expected. However, thanks to a stronger than predicted opening by San Andreas, it wasn't as bad as it could have been. On the other hand, Aloha was on the low end of expectations. The overall box office fell 9.5% from last weekend to $139 million, which is acceptable. By comparison, the overall box office fell 17% from this weekend last year, as San Andreas couldn't keep up with Maleficent's opening. Year-to-date, 2015 has pulled in $4.20 billion, putting it 1.2% ahead of 2014's pace of $4.15 million. 2015 is coming dangerously close to losing its lead over last year.

San Andreas topped the high end of expectations with $54.59 million over the weekend. This is Dwayne Johnson's biggest non-franchise opening in his career and about $20 million more than expectations. Its reviews are mixed, but fine for a blockbuster action film. I don't expect it to have major legs, but it should last long enough to top $100 million with ease and $150 million isn't out of the question. Since it cost $110 million to make, anything between $100 million and $150 million will be enough to ensure profitability sometime on the home market, if not sooner.

There was a really close race for second place. Pitch Perfect 2 remained in second place with $14.82 million over the weekend for a total of $147.52 million after three weeks of release. This is already more than it needed to earn to break even and it will likely stick around in theaters for the rest of the month.

Tomorrowland fell from first to third with $14.30 million over the weekend for a total of $63.89 million after ten days of release. A 57% sophomore stint drop-off is bad news for the movie's legs, as are its reviews. Add in its huge production budget and the movie will have to be a huge hit internationally to break even.

Mad Max: Fury Road landed in fourth place with $14.18 million over the weekend for a total of $116.47 million after three. The film cost $150 million to make and it likely won't match that domestically. That said, its early international numbers suggest it will break even and will justify a sequel or two.

The Avengers: Age of Ultron earned fifth place with $11.40 million for a month-long total of $427.55 million. It is now in tenth place on the all time domestic chart and it is about a week away from overtaking E.T. for ninth place. On the other hand, it is starting to lose theaters at an accelerated pace, so a spot in the top five is very likely out of the question.

Aloha landed on the low end of expectations with just $9.67 million during its opening weekend. I was more pessimistic that most analysts, but even I thought it would perform better than this. Worse still, with a weak per theater average and even weaker reviews, the film will likely also have short legs. On the plus side, it only cost $37 million to make, so it won't lose too much money.

The only other film in the sophomore class was Poltergeist, which fell 64% to just $8.06 million for a ten-day total of $38.53 million. This is already more than it cost to make, so if it can find an audience internationally, it should break even early on the film's home market run.


Filed under: Weekend Wrap-up, Poltergeist, Mad Max: Fury Road, Avengers: Age of Ultron, Tomorrowland, San Andreas, Pitch Perfect 2, Aloha, Dwayne Johnson