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Friday Estimates: Outta Compton, Into the Record Book

August 15th, 2015

Straight Outta Compton

Friday’s estimates are in and, not to put too fine a point on it, Straight Outta Compton destroyed predictions. In my defense, with Fantastic Four bombing, it looked like summer was over. It is very rare for the box office to rebound this time of year, but that’s exactly what happened. Straight Outta Compton earned $24.2 million on Friday night. Not only is this the biggest opening day for a musical biopic, it tops the previous record-holder’s opening weekend. (Walk the Line earned $22.35 million during its opening weekend back in 2005.) Since the film has broken records, it is a little hard to predict where it will be by the end of the weekend. The big opening day could mean a huge opening weekend. Or it could be the result of an extreme Fanboy Effect. Worst case scenario has the film making less over the rest of the weekend than it did during its opening day. This isn’t common, but it has happened before. That would still result in a $48 million opening weekend. On the higher end, its reviews could translate into long legs and an opening weekend of more than $65 million. If the weekend is below $55 million, then the Fanboy effect was bigger than its reviews. Anything above $60 million and the reverse is true. I'm going to go with $53 million, but as I said, this is a record-breaking opening day, so we are in untested territory.

The Man From U.N.C.L.E. wasn’t as lucky, opening with $4.865 million, which is on the low end of expectations. Sadly, its surprisingly strong reviews, for a late summer release, were not enough to entice moviegoers to see the movie in large numbers. It will end up with just over $12 million during its opening weekend, which isn’t even enough to be considered a midlevel hit. Maybe it will be a hit internationally. That's the only way it will break even.


Filed under: Friday Night Box Office, Fantastic Four, Mission: Impossible—Rogue Nation, The Man From U.N.C.L.E., Straight Outta Compton