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Weekend Estimates: Straight Into the Record Books

August 16th, 2015

Straight Outta Compton

Straight Outta Compton is smashing all sorts of records this weekend, as Universal’s miracle year continues. The studio is already enjoying its best year ever, and will pass $2 billion at the domestic box office this weekend, becoming the second studio to ever hit the mark, after Warner Bros.’ $2.1 billion year in 2009. Universal’s achievement is even more remarkable given they’ve only had 14 movies playing this year, compared to Warner’s 36 in 2009.

Straight Outta Compton is projected to open with a shade over $56 million this weekend, way ahead of early expectations, and almost double the opening weekend for the previously most successful biographical movie, Catch Me If You Can, which opened with $30 million back in 2002. To be fair, the film most similar to Compton is probably 8 Mile, which isn’t strictly a biopic, and opened with $51 million, also in 2002, which is a slightly better performance when adjusted for inflation.

With stellar reviews (Rotten Tomatoes has the film at 88% fresh), and no blockbuster competition coming up, Compton could have a good run, although comparison with 8 Mile suggests that it could be fairly heavily front-loaded. For now, a total box office around $120 million seems like a reasonable bet, although Universal will be touting it as an early Oscar contender, and who would bet against their marketing machine at this point in time?

The Man From UNCLE is having a much more disappointing debut. Warner Bros. is projecting a $13.5 million weekend, for a theater average of around $3,700. There’s really no good news here for a film that the studio was hoping would be a franchise starter.

In limited release, Mistress America is making a great start with Fox projecting a $94,000 opening weekend from four locations for an average of $23,500.

- Weekend Estimates

Bruce Nash,

Filed under: Weekend Box Office, The Man From U.N.C.L.E., Straight Outta Compton, Mistress America