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Friday Estimates: Hunger Games not as Filling as Anticipated

November 21st, 2015

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2

There’s good news / bad news for The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2’s Friday box office. On the positive side, it is dominating in theaters with $46 million on Friday, which is more than any other film will earn during the entire weekend. It might be more than the combined weekend hauls of the rest of the top five, in fact. On the down side, this is below expectations and puts the film on pace for about $104 million for the weekend as a whole. Granted, this is still the best opening since Jurassic World and the fifth-best opening of the year, but it is well behind Part 1, which pulled in $55 million on its opening day, so some will call this a disappointment. It is the curse of high expectations.

Its reviews and its A- CinemaScore should help its legs, as will the fact that it is the last installment in the franchise. Additionally, it’s Thanksgiving next weekend, so there are a lot of positives to focus on. The film could make $100 million profit before it reaches the home market, while its theatrical release has given a bump to the other films’ home market revenue. That said, it might not live up to the franchise average worldwide and some people will choose to focus on the negatives.

The Night Before also missed expectations with $3.8 million on Friday, putting it on pace for between $10 million and $11 million this weekend. That said, its reviews are good and its CinemaScore was even better at an A-, which suggests its legs could be long enough to last ’til Christmas. Or, even better, it could become an annual Christmas tradition among those who like holiday films with an R-rated edge to them. If that happens, it will break even, possibly several times over.

Secret in Their Eyes is the biggest disappointment of the weekend with an opening day of $2.5 million. It doesn’t have good reviews, while its CinemaScore is just B- and that will not help its legs. It didn’t cost a lot to make, so an opening weekend of between $7 million and $8 million isn’t a complete disaster, but I don’t think this one will break even any time soon.

- Friday estimates
- Mockingjay Part 2 comps
- The Hunger Games franchise details

Filed under: Friday Estimates, Hunger Games