Follow us on

Weekend Predictions: How Many will See Heart of the Sea?

December 10th, 2015

In the Heart of the Sea

There's only one wide release this week, In the Heart of the Sea, although some sources still have Legend expanding nationwide. Of course, expanding nationwide doesn't mean the same thing as expanding truly wide. Because In the Heart of the Sea doesn't have any real competition this weekend, it is widely expected to earn first place, but it isn't expected to be a smash hit. It is very unlikely it will do as well as last year's number one film, Exodus: Gods and Kings. The depth is a little better this year, but 2015 will still likely struggle to match 2014 in the year-over-year comparison.

In the Heart of the Sea is the latest film directed by Ron Howard and it stars Chris Hemsworth. The pair previously worked together on Rush, a film that earned amazing reviews, but failed to make much of an impact at the box office. This film's reviews are much weaker, but it does feel like it has a more mainstream appeal to it. Or at the very least, it feels more epic and therefore should be seen in theaters. The over / under for success is $20 million. Most think it is going to fail to get there. Some thing it will fail by a substantial margin opening with less than $15 million. I'm not that pessimistic, but $18 million still isn't a good start for a film that cost just under $100 million to make.

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 will be in second place with just under $11 million. It is on pace to hit $250 million, but not this weekend. This is more than enough to break even, but disappointing compared to the other films in the franchise.

The Good Dinosaur will be right behind with just over $10 million giving it nearly $90 million. It will likely remain in the top ten through till the new year, but it will need to rely on the home market and other sources of income to break even. Maybe merchandising will save this film from becoming Pixar's first financial failure.

Creed will be right behind with just under $10 million. It will be at just under $80 million by the end of the weekend and Christmas and New Years will help it get to the century mark.

Krampus will round out the top five with $8 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $28 million. That's enough for the studio to recoup its production budget, so it will only need to make enough to cover its advertising budget during the rest of its domestic run, its international run, and on the home market to break even. That seems very likely at this point.

In the Heart of the Sea comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, In the Heart of the Sea, The Good Dinosaur, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2, Krampus, Creed, Legend, Hunger Games, Chris Hemsworth, Ron Howard