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Weekend Predictions: Is the Box Office Dead?

April 1st, 2016

God's Not Dead 2

This is going to be a short prediction column, because a computer crash meant I had to redo the entire monthly preview in one day. Not been a fun day. Fortunately, there's only one new wide release, God's Not Dead 2, so there's not a lot to talk about. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice will remain in first place, but all eyes will be on its sophomore stint drop-off. This weekend last year, Furious 7 debuted with $147 million. There's no chance the total box office will top that this year, so 2016 will get pummeled in the year-over-year comparison.

Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice broke records during its opening weekend, but its terrible reviews are costing it a lot of money on the daily chart. In fact, by Wednesday, the film's daily numbers had fallen behind Deadpool's pace. I don't think it will bounce back over the weekend, meaning it will finish with less than the $56 million, possibly less than $50 million. I'm not that pessimistic, but I'm only predicting $54 million over the next three days. The film's box office numbers are so bad when compared to its budget, that Warner Bros. is doing reshoots for Suicide Squad in order to lighten its tone. Apparently, every single joke in the entire movie was in the latest trailer. A lighter tone is certainly better, but doing reshoots this close to its release date is a really, really bad sign.

Zootopia will remain in second place with $18 million over the weekend for a total of nearly $275 million. $300 million domestically is becoming more and more likely.

God's Not Dead 2 is the sequel to God's Not Dead. That film earned just $9.24 million during its opening weekend, but it had incredible legs finishing with just over $60 million. This film should open faster, but won't have as long legs thanks to the Sequel Effect. The early reviews are better than the first film's reviews are, so maybe that will help it attract some crossover appeal, but I doubt it. Look for between $12 million and $13 million over the weekend for a total of $35 million.

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 should earn $11 million over the weekend. The reviews are bad, but the target audience seems to have liked it more than the professional critics did and that should help the legs.

Miracles from Heaven should round out the top five with between $6 million and $7 million. If it can get to $50 million, I think the studio will be happy.

- God's Not Dead 2 comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Deadpool, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, Zootopia, My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2, Miracles from Heaven, God’s Not Dead 2
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