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Weekend Predictions: Will the New Releases be a Breath of Fresh Air?

August 25th, 2016

Don’t Breathe

It’s the last weekend of summer and a number of schools are already back, so the box office prospects are really low. That’s not to say there’s nothing to look forward to, as Don’t Breathe is earning stellar reviews. On the other hand, Mechanic: Resurrection still has no reviews. (There was another movie, Hands of Stone, that was expected to open wide, but that is no longer the case.) This weekend last year, Straight Outta Compton completed its threepete with $13.13 million. The best new release was War Room, which only managed $11.35 million. This year, the two wide releases will topped the combined numbers of those two films, while the holdovers will push 2016 over 2015 in the year-over-year comparison.

Don’t Breathe is the latest horror film looking to become a solid midlevel hit this summer. The previous such film, Lights Out, opened with $21.69 million and will finish with close to $70 million. Don’t Breathe has stellar reviews, but has a weaker release date. An opening of $20 million is still possible, but I’m going to be a little more cautious and go with $18 million over the weekend and just over $50 million in total. That’s an amazing run for a film that reportedly cost just under $10 million to make.

Suicide Squad will be pushed out of top spot with just over $10 million over the weekend. It remains on pace for $300 million, barely. It should get close enough that the studio will give it a push over the top.

Kubo and the Two Strings should have the best week-to-week decline, thanks in part to its reviews and thanks it part to its family friendly target audience. It opened with $12.61 million, but should only fall 33% to just over $8 million this weekend.

Sausage Party should add $8 million to its domestic box office over the weekend. It is on pace to come close to $100 million domestically. It likely won’t get there, but the studio might give it a push across the mark, because they haven’t had a monster hit all year long.

War Dogs should round out the top five with just under $8 million. Its box office is weak, but not terrible for this time of year.

The final wide release of the week is Mechanic: Resurrection. There are still no reviews and its theater count is roughly 2,300, both of which suggest the studio isn’t giving it a major push. There’s a chance it will miss the Mendoza Line earning just over $4 million, while earning a place in the top five with just over $8 million is likely as good as it will get. Split the difference and we get an opening weekend of just over $6 million.

- Don’t Breathe Comparisons
- Mechanic: Resurrection Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Sausage Party, Lights Out, Suicide Squad, War Dogs, Mechanic: Resurrection, Kubo and the Two Strings, Hands of Stone, Don’t Breathe