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Friday Estimates: New Releases are a Stain on the Box Office

September 3rd, 2016

No Manches Frida

Labor Day long weekend is rarely a great time at the box office, but I wasn’t prepared for this. Neither of the new releases reached the top five on the Friday box office chart, leaving Don’t Breathe the clear winner for the day with $4.18 million. This is down just 58% from its opening Friday, so it will easily top predictions. It looks like it will earn more over three days ($14 million) than we predicted it would earn over four ($13 million).

The Light Between Oceans earned sixth place on Friday with $1.36 million. This is terrible, but in line with expectations, so look for just under $5 million over three dates and $6 million over four. The reviews are barely above the overall positive level, while its CinemaScore was just a B+, so that won’t help its legs. Meanwhile, theater owners will be looking to drop this film A.S.A.P.

That film is a blockbuster compared to Morgan. This film only managed $615,000 on Friday and is on pace for less than $3 million over four days. It earned mixed reviews and its CinemaScore is a mere C+, so word-of-mouth won’t help it in the long run.

I do want to end on a positive note, and there is a film that had a positive opening this Friday. No Manches Frida just missed the top ten for the day with $1.06 million in just 362 theaters. There are still no reviews, so it is hard to say where it will go from here. Earning a theater average of $10,000 over the three-day weekend is possible, while $4 million over four days is the low end of expectations at this point.

- Friday Box Office Chart

- No Manches Frida Comparisons
- Morgan Comparisons
- The Light Between Oceans Comparisons

Filed under: Friday Estimates