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Friday Estimates: New Releases Get Snowed Under by Sully’s $6.57 million Haul

September 17th, 2016


Friday was terrible for new releases and Sully will have no trouble repeating on top of the chart this weekend. The film earned $6.57 million on Friday, which is less than a 50% decline from its opening Friday. It might not quite get to $22 million as predicted, but even if it doesn’t, it should come close enough to be considered a victory. This is great news, because it is the only September release so far that has done well enough to call it a box office success.

I was expecting Blair Witch to earn first place on Friday, but that didn’t happen, as it only managed $4.07 million, putting it on pace for $10 million over the weekend. Things are not going to turn around, as its reviews have continued to sink and its CinemaScore is a mere D+. Granted, horror films tend to struggle with the CinemaScore so you have to grade on a curve, but even so, a D+ is terrible. If Lionsgate were hoping to turn this into a franchise, that plan ended last night.

Bridget Jones’s Baby was next with $3.04 million over the weekend, putting it on pace for just under $9 million over the weekend. Its reviews are the best of the new releases, while its CinemaScore was a B+. The film will go nowhere here, but early reports from its native U.K. are a lot better and it could break even thanks to its international numbers.

Snowden was the only one of the new wide releases that didn’t miss expectations. The film was in a virtual tie for third place with $3.035 million on Friday, meaning it will top the $6 million we predicted, albeit by a small margin. Given its reviews, one would expect short legs. However, its CinemaScore was a solid A. It should earn between $7 million and $8 million over the weekend, which isn’t enough to be a hit, but it could have been worse.

Speaking of worse, Hillsong: Let Hope Rise only managed $628,000 on Friday. Its reviews are 60% positive, but there are only five of them on Rotten Tomatoes, so it is far too early to tell where it will end up. It wasn’t even tracked by CinemaScore. The film will likely finish with around $1.5 million to $2 million, so it is too soon to tell if it will end up below the Mendoza Line.

- Friday Box Office

- Blair Witch Comparisons
- Bridget Jones’s Baby Comparisons
- Snowden Comparisons

Filed under: Friday Estimates