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Weekend Predictions: Will September end on a Disastrous Note?

September 29th, 2016

Deepwater Horizon

Three wide releases come out this week: Deepwater Horizon, Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children, and Masterminds. Deepwater Horizon’s reviews are better than expected and that should help it at the box office. Miss Peregrine’s reviews are on the razor’s edge of the overall positive level. Meanwhile, there are not enough reviews to really judge Masterminds, but the early signs don’t look good. This weekend last year was the first weekend of October. The Martian nearly broke the record for biggest October weekend. There’s a chance all three wide releases this week won’t match The Martian’s opening weekend. Add in last year’s depth and there’s almost no chance 2016 will come out ahead on the year-over-year comparison.

Deepwater Horizon is a film based on real-life events, and stars Mark Wahlberg. This is very similar to Lone Survivor, which earned $125 million back in 2013. It opened in limited release in December and earned $37.85 million when it expanded wide in January. Additionally, the films also have very similar reviews. If the overall box office was strong, I would say Deepwater Horizon would have a chance at matching Lone Survivor, at least during its opening weekend. However, since so few films have lived up to expectations in September, I think it will struggle more with just under $25 million.

Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children is the latest young adult adaptation. This is a sub-genre than is already on its way out, but there is some hope that the addition of Tim Burton’s sense of style will give it a boost. If the reviews are any indication, then the results will be good, but not great. The film’s Tomatometer Score is floating around the overall positive level, which is better than a lot of September releases. It is very similar to The Maze Runner, which earned $32.51 million when it debuted this time of year two years ago. There are some who think this film could match that figure, but the overall box office is in a bit of a slump right now and this sub-genre of film is well off its peak. I think $24 million is a safer bet. That will put it in a tight race for first place.

The Magnificent Seven opened with $34.70 million last weekend and it will likely lose about half of that this weekend. Earning just over $17 million this weekend won’t be a bad result, but it will make getting to $100 million a little harder. On the other hand, if it can make close to $19 million, I will be a lot more confident about its chances at $100 million.

Because Storks is a family film, it should hold on a little bit better, falling just over 40% to between $12 million and $13 million. It is failing to live up to expectations, but as long as it can come close to matching its $70 million production budget domestically and do as well internationally, it could break even, eventually.

Sully will round out the top five with just under $9 million. This will be enough to push it past $100 million domestically, so the studio has reason to celebrate.

The final wide release of the week is Masterminds. The film has a great cast, but something went wrong in production, as its Tomatometer Score is just 33% positive. Furthermore, the buzz never really caught on and there’s almost no chance it will be a box office hit. On the high end, it could grab fifth place with just over $10 million. On the low end, it won’t earn half of that. I’m going with $8 million, meaning it will likely grab fifth place on Friday, but fall to sixth place over the weekend.

- Deepwater Horizon Comparisons
- Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children Comparisons
- Masterminds Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children, Masterminds, Deepwater Horizon, The Magnificent Seven, Storks, Sully, Mark Wahlberg, Tim Burton