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Weekend Estimates: Split Wins Third Weekend

February 5th, 2017


Rings managed to win on Friday, but the weekend as a whole will belong to Split, which is expected to top the chart with $14.6 million, according to Universal’s Sunday morning projection. Rings will finish second with $13 million or so, and A Dog’s Purpose will win Sunday (making this a rare weekend where three different films will top the daily chart) to finish the weekend with $10.8 million, and $32.9 million to date.

Split’s feat of winning three straight weekends isn’t that rare. In fact, it’s one that has become increasingly common in recent years, and comes immediately after Rogue One: A Star Wars Story and Moana did the same thing. But it takes an unusual confluence of events for a film to open with $40 million and still be number one three weeks later. The last film to pull off that feat was Ride Along, which did it at the beginning of 2014. The two films have tracked very similarly so far, although Split is now doing a little better, and it it should top Ride Along’s $134 million domestic total.

For Rings, the weekend is a mixed bag. Given the film’s poor reviews, a $13 million debut isn’t all that bad, and it only cost $25 million to make. Even with a rapid decline and quick exit from theaters, overseas earnings and some life in the home market should keep it from being a complete financial dud. Its opening is the worst for the franchise, although not far behind the $15 million earned by The Ring in 2002.

A Dog’s Purpose will be down 41% from last weekend, which is OK in this day and age. While it didn’t get good reviews, it is appealing to its target demographic, and will be effective counter-programming for the Super Bowl today. It should get close to $50 million in total, which is a fairly happy outcome for a film that cost $25 million to make.

The Space Between Us is struggling to get off the launch pad with just $3.8 million expected this weekend, according to STX Entertainment. The studio was quick to point out that it’s receiving an A minus CinemaScore, and that their share of the risk is just $3.7 million, thanks to co-financing, tax credits, and foreign licensing. While the film won’t do much here, the distributor won’t take too much of a hit on it, and it could be one of those films that gets a second life on video.

Breaking in to the top ten this weekend is Lion, Weinstein’s Best Picture Oscar nominee. It is expected to top $4 million this time around, and will end the weekend with around $24.7 million. For what it’s worth, it has now passed Moonlight, which becomes this year’s lowest-grossing Best Picture nominee.

In limited release, we finally have some action, after several weeks dominated by returning Oscar hopefuls. Chapter & Verse is the standout film, with an expected $32,713 from a single hometown New York location. It’ll be one to watch out for in the coming weeks. I Am Not Your Negro is also having a terrific start, with $709,500 expected from 43 venues, for an average of $16,500. Mr. Gaga rounds out the $10,000-per-theater club with $24,685 projected from two movie houses.

- Weekend estimates

- Rings comparison chart
- The Space Between Us comparison chart
- Split comparison chart
- A Dog’s Purpose comparison chart

Filed under: Weekend Box Office, Moana, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, Lion, Rings, Split, The Space Between Us, A Dog’s Purpose, Mr. Gaga, I Am Not Your Negro, Chapter & Verse, Ring