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Friday Estimates: Dark Tower’s Chances Dim with $7.73 million Opening Day

August 5th, 2017

The Dark Tower

On the positive side, The Dark Tower topped the chart on Friday. On the negative side, it missed both our original prediction, as well as our lowered expectations with just $7.725 million. The film’s reviews are terrible at 19% positive, while its CinemaScore is a mere B, so that’s bad news for the film’s legs, putting it on pace for between $18 million and $19 million. It’s good news for Dunkirk, which has a real shot at first place on the weekend chart for the third weekend in a row.

Speaking of Dunkirk, the film added $5.015 million on Friday and is on pace for between $17 million and $18 million over the full weekend. This likely won’t be enough to reach $200 million domestically, unless its trailing legs are massive due to the lack of any real competition, but it is more than enough to ensure profitability sooner rather than later.

Kidnap bounced back better than expected after weak previews, earning $3.68 million on Friday. Its reviews remain 40% positive, while it earned a B plus from CinemaScore, so its legs will be fine. It is a thriller and those tend to be more front-loaded than dramas are, but it is on pace for $9 million over the weekend. Its production budget hasn’t been announced, but the film’s distribution rights only cost $3 million, so that’s going to be covered by the end of the weekend. The advertising reportedly cost about $17 million, so it will need to bring in about $40 million to break even on its theatrical run. That’s not going to happen after this start, but if it gets more than halfway there, then it could consider the theatrical run to be advertising for a likely more lucrative run on the home market and it will break even eventually.

Detroit didn’t grow as much as expected from its expansion, earning $2.62 million on Friday, which put it well behind Kidnap for the day. On the other hand, its reviews and its A minus CinemaScore should help its legs and maybe it will climb ahead of Kidnap for the weekend, but $8 million is much more likely. The film cost between $35 million and $40 million, so it will need strong legs to break even. That isn’t impossible given its strong word-of-mouth, but a slow start like this might result in too many theater owners dropping the film before word-of-mouth can become a real factor.

The Emoji Movie fell 62% from its opening Friday to just $3.85 million. By comparison, both Despicable Me 3 and Cars 3 fell by 61% in the same time period. This puts the film on pace for $11 million over the weekend and about $70 million in total.

One last note, we got Friday numbers for Wind River and they are massive. The film pulled in over $52,000 in four theaters for an average of $13,053. Its one day average is better than most limited releases manage over the full weekend. On the other hand, it is only half as much as The Big Stick opened with, so keep that in mind.

- Friday Box Office Chart

- The Dark Tower Comparisons
- Detroit Comparisons
- Kidnap Comparisons

Filed under: Friday Estimates, The Dark Tower, Despicable Me 3, Kidnap, Dunkirk, Cars 3, The Emoji Movie, Wind River, The Big Sick, Detroit