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Friday Estimates: Last Jedi Starts New Year’s Weekend with $19.06 million

December 30th, 2017

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

The last year to have Christmas and New Years Days on a Monday was 2006. Using that year as a guide and adjusting for changes in the market, specifically how much more front-loaded films tend to be, I was expecting a slight improvement for Star Wars: The Last Jedi from Thursday to Friday. That didn’t happen. In reality, the film lost 2.2% of its daily box office to hit $19.06 million on Friday. Granted, the film already has $483.76 million domestically and will likely hit first place for the year by the end of business today, surpassing Beauty and the Beast. Even with a slightly reduced weekend estimate of $54 million / $70 million, it is on pace for $600 million domestically with relative ease, making it a shoo-in for the sixth-highest-grossing domestic film of all time.

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle wasn’t that far behind with $17.75 million on Friday for a total of $137 million after 10 days of release. This is better than expected and the film could earn about $45 million / $60 million over the weekend. At this pace, $200 million domestically seems like a safe bet.

Pitch Perfect 3 earned $6.6 million on Friday, and Universal is predicting $18.3 million / $23.5 million for the three-day / four-day weekend. This is a little weaker than our earlier prediction, but $100 million domestically remains a reasonable goal.

The Greatest Showman managed $5.37 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $15 million / $20 million over the weekend. This is better than expected, but weak compared to its $84 million production budget.

Ferdinand also beat expectations, earning $4.5 million on Friday, to put it on pace for $12 million / $15 million. Again, this is better than expected, but it is too little, too late for a film that cost $111 million to make.

- Star Wars: The Last Jedi Comparisons
- Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Comparisons
- Pitch Perfect 3 Comparisons
- The Greatest Showman Comparisons

Filed under: Friday Estimates, The Greatest Showman, Ferdinand, Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Last Jedi, Pitch Perfect 3, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
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