Weekend Predictions: Can Maze Runner Sprint to the Finish Line?
January 25, 2018
Maze Runner: The Death Cure, is the final installment of the Maze Runner trilogy and is the only wide release of the week. It is guaranteed first place, unless something horrible happens, but there’s almost no chance it will live up to the other two installments. Hostiles is expanding wide, but I don’t have a lot of faith in the film’s box office chances. It is almost the exact wrong time to expand. This weekend last year, Split had a surprisingly good hold earning $25 million, while four other films earned more than $10 million at the box office. That’s not going to happen this year, so 2018 will lose in the year-over-year comparison. It shouldn’t be a complete blowout, on the other hand.
The first Maze Runner film was a surprise hit in 2014 and while the sequel didn’t live up to the original, it was still a massive financial hit. Unfortunately, Maze Runner: The Death Cure is expected to collapse when compared to its predecessor. Even opening with more than $20 million isn’t a sure thing. On the positive side, the film does have name recognition thanks to the first two installments. On the negative side, its reviews are on par with the second film’s reviews and not the first film’s reviews. As long as its reviews don’t continue to drop, this won’t hurt ticket sales too much and $25 million is possible. On the low end, it might barely cross $20 million. I’m going with $22 million.
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle will relinquish first place, but will still earn $14 million over the weekend for a total of about $335 million. This will be enough to overtake Spider-Man: Homecoming as Sony’s biggest hit of 2017. Mere days later, it will overtake Spider-Man 3 as Sony’s third biggest hit of all time.
The Post picked up a couple of Oscar nominations and that should help it at the box office. It will still fall, but to just over $10 million.
The Greatest Showman should climb into fourth place with $8 million over the weekend. This film’s legs are almost unstoppable. Its opening weekend was a mess and it looked like it would bomb, but now it is practically guaranteed to earn a profit.
Hostiles is expanding into nearly 3000 theaters and the studio thinks it will earn $12 million. I just don’t see it. Don’t get me wrong, the film has been doing amazingly well in limited release, but it is expanding at the worst time of year. Oscar Nominations were announced this week and Hostiles got none, while several multi-Oscar nominated films are seeing their theater count grow. There’s simply too much competition to expect Hostiles to thrive. I don’t think it will bomb, but I think earning fifth place with just under $8 million is likely.
- Maze Runner: The Death Cure Comparisons
- Hostiles Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Greatest Showman, Maze Runner: The Death Cure, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, The Post, Hostiles, The Maze Runner