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Weekend Predictions: New Releases Battle for Season Place as Black Panther Completes Threepeat

March 1st, 2018

Red Sparrow

March will begin the same way February ended, with Black Panther on top of the box office. The two new releases, Red Sparrow and Death Wish, might not make as much over the full weekend as Black Panther will earn on Friday. This weekend last year, Logan opened with $88.41 million, while Get Out held on better than expected with $28.24 million. There’s little chance 2018 will be able to beat that at the top, so 2018’s winning streak might come to an end.

Black Panther opened faster than expected and held on better than most monster hits. It has already reached $400 million domestically and will likely nearly get to $500 million over the weekend. Most are expecting it to earn just short of $60 million during the weekend, which will be more than the rest of the top five will make combined.

Red Sparrow has been a divisive film with the reviews at almost exactly 50% positive. A lot of critics are praising Jennifer Lawrence’s performances, but even critics that love her in the movie admit the plot veers into exploitation rather than empowerment. The trailer make quite a big splash, so it could still hit $20 million over the weekend, but I think $18 million is more likely at this point.

Death Wish is a remake of a movie that was made near the peak of the crime rate in the 1970s. At the moment, violent crime is at a 40-year low. This should result in a lot lower demand from moviegoers, but the actual crime rate and the perceived crime rate are often very different. On the other hand, its reviews certainly won’t help, as its Tomatometer Score is currently just 15% positive. The lack of buzz is also hurting the film’s box office chances, but it should still challenge for second place. I think it will just miss out with $15 million, but that’s not bad for a film that cost $30 million to make.

Game Night should be next with just over $10 million over the weekend for a two week total of $33 million. It is on pace to become a midlevel hit and it should break even sometime during its home market run.

Peter Rabbit will round out the top ten with just under $10 million. The film remains on pace to hit $100 million domestically, which is a great result for a family film opening at this time of year.

- Red Sparrow Comparisons
- Death Wish Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Black Panther, Get Out, Red Sparrow, Peter Rabbit, Game Night, Death Wish, Jennifer Lawrence
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