Weekend Predictions: Can Teen Titans do the Impossible?
July 26, 2018
The last weekend of the month has two wide releases, both of which are earning stellar reviews. Mission: Impossible—Fallout is the sixth film in the franchise. It wasn’t that long ago where a sixth installment in a franchise would be impressive. Teen Titans Go! To the Movie is the first big screen appearance for most of these characters. There should also be three, maybe four other films with $10 million or more during the weekend. 2018 won’t need that depth to win in the year-over-year comparison, as this weekend last year was pretty weak, so the month should end on a winning note.
Mission: Impossible is a franchise that has waxed and waned as far as my interest is concerned. I liked the first one and the fourth film is the best in the franchise. However, by the time the last installment came out, I had lost interest in the films. Will Mission: Impossible—Fallout change that? Well, the reviews strongly suggest it will, as it is one of the best-reviewed wide releases of the year. That said, the film’s box office chances are more modest and the studio would be happy with a $200 million domestic run. It’s being released by Paramount and if it does get to $200 million, it will be their first $200 million hit since Transformers: Age of Extinction. In order to do that, they will need to open with about $70 million this weekend and have long trailing legs. Unfortunately, it appears to be on track for a $50 million to $60 million opening. There are a lot of other action films in theaters at the moment, three have opened in the past three weeks, but I’m going to be bold and predict a $67 million opening.
Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! should hold on better than most films, because it is aimed at more mature women, and they tend to see movies during the second weekend more than teenage boys, for example. That said, the film had a smaller internal multiplier during its opening weekend, so that could be a bad sign. I think it will drop just under 50% with $18 million over the weekend, which should be enough to keep it on pace for $100 million domestically, barely.
The Equalizer 2 is an action film and not only do those films tend to have shorter legs, it is dealing with direct competition. It did earn an A from CinemaScore and its target audience is more mature men, rather than teenagers, so that should help. I think it will stick around in third place with $16 million over the weekend. That should be enough to get to $100 million domestically, barely.
When the first trailer for Teen Titans Go! To the Movie came out, it earned a lot of negative buzz. However, this buzz came from adult comic book fans, who thought the movie was too silly. It seems the critics love the silly nature of the movie. It still doesn’t have very loud buzz, so I’m not expecting a lot at the box office. It could compete for second place with close to $20 million, but fourth place with just under $15 million is more likely. That’s not a bad start for a film like this, especially not with a reported $10 million production budget.
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation should be close behind with $14 million over the weekend. The film cracked $100 million on Tuesday, which was just its 12th day of release. This is faster than the previous films in the franchise, but this is the first summer release of the three films, so that makes sense.
- Mission: Impossible—Fallout Comparisons
- Teen Titans Go! To The Movies Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Equalizer 2, Mission: Impossible—Fallout, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again!, Teen Titans Go! To The Movies, Mission: Impossible, Hotel Transylvania