Weekend Predictions: Can Happytime Overtake Crazy Rich Asians at the Box Office?
August 23, 2018
Summer is winding down and there are only one and a half wide releases this week. The Happytime Murders is a high-concept, lowbrow comedy that is probably too out there to find an audience. Meanwhile, A.X.L. is opening in less than 2,000 theaters and tracking has it opening below the Mendoza Line. This does mean Crazy Rich Asians has a real shot at repeating on top of the box office chart. This weekend last year, The Hitman’s Bodyguard was the only film to earn more than $10 million. This year, we should have two or three films do the same and 2018 should easily win in the year-over-year chart.
Crazy Rich Asians beat expectations earning $35 million over its five-day opening last week and thanks to excellent reviews, an A from CinemaScore, and clearly strong word-of-mouth, it should have little trouble earning first place this weekend. In fact, anything more than $15 million this weekend would give it a realistic shot at $100 million domestically. There are some predictions that go as high as $18 million over the weekend. I’m not that bullish, but I think $16 million is likely. On a side note, it should come as no surprise that there is already a sequel in the works.
The Happytime Murders is a high-concept, lowbrow comedy and therefore there are very few films we can compare it to. Sausage Party is one, but while that film also had a high-concept, Sausage Party also had a message as well. This film is just lowbrow humor for the sake of lowbrow humor, which is something that rarely impresses critics. It should do better with moviegoers, but even then, it will have trouble topping its $40 million production budget domestically. Maybe it will surprise earning first place with $15 million (Crazy Rich Asians would also have to underperform for this to happen), but second place with $13 million seems more likely.
The Meg will crack $100 million domestically this weekend, which is great news for Warner Bros., as the film needed to be a $100 million hit to have any real chance of breaking even relatively soon. Adding another $12 million to its box office haul should push its running tally to $105 million, meaning it could match its $130 million net production budget by the time it’s done.
Thanks to terrible competition, Mission: Impossible—Fallout will remain in the top five yet another week, this time earning $7 million. It will take a couple of more weeks to get to $200 million domestically, but it should get there.
Alpha and Christopher Robin will be in a close race for fifth place, each with about $6 million. Christopher Robin is on pace to match its $75 million production budget by the end of the month, but unless it is a bigger hit internationally, it won’t break even any time soon.
The only other wide release of the week is A.X.L., which is only opening semi-wide. Additionally, there are still no reviews, meaning either the studio, Global Road, knows they have a dud on their hands, or that the buzz is just so quiet it isn’t worth reviewing. Either way, it isn’t a good sign. Most analysts think the film will struggle to top the Mendoza Line and at most, it will earn about $5 million. It could earn less than $2 million. I’m going with $3 million, but it is hard to predict a movie’s box office chances, when its prospects are this weak.
- The Happytime Murders Comparisons
- A.X.L. Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Christopher Robin, The Happytime Murders, Alpha, Mission: Impossible—Fallout, The Meg, Crazy Rich Asians, A.X.L.