Friday Estimates: Alita Battles it’s Way to the Top
February 16, 2019
Alita: Battle Angel started strong on Thursday with $8.72 million and held on well on Friday down just 14% to $7.53 million. Granted, this was the worst decline of the three new releases, but it was also the only one to open on Thursday, so I think this is a strong showing. The reviews remain right on the edge of the overall positive level, so it should have acceptable legs. Look for between $25 million and $26 million over the three-day weekend and $30 million over four. This would be a good start, if the film cost $100 million to make. However, with a budget between $160 million and $170 million, depending on tax breaks, even getting to $100 million domestically will just be saving face.
The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part shot into second place on Friday with $4.45 million, double its Thursday run. This is only 47% lower than its opening Friday, which would already be good, but as a family film going into a holiday weekend, it’s fantastic. Look for $20 million over the three-day weekend and $26 million including Monday. The film will easily cross $100 million domestically, which is enough to break even early in its home market run. That said, it is still way below expectations and it is time to put the franchise on hold, at least for a few years.
Isn’t It Romantic was right behind with $4.18 million on Friday for a three-day running tally of $10.43 million. Its reviews are good, but not great, while Warner Bros. announced it earned an A minus from CinemaScore. This should help its legs meaning the film is on pace to earn $13 million, maybe $14 million over the three-day weekend, while it is aiming for $16 million over four. It should finish within a rounding error of our $22 million prediction and this is enough to be a financial success.
What Men Want managed fourth place on Friday with $2.93 million, which is 56% lower than its opening Friday. It’s on pace to match our $13 million four-day prediction nearly perfectly and should end its run with over $50 million domestically. Even if it can’t find an audience internationally, it will still break even sometime during its home market run.
Happy Death Day 2U actually rose 4% from Thursday to $2.85 million on Friday. This should be good news, but the film is underperforming original expectations so much that being the only new release to grow on Friday is hardly something to celebrate. That said, Universal is estimating $9 million over the three-day weekend and $10.5 million including Monday, which isn’t a bad start for a film that cost $9 million to make. If it can hold on better internationally, then it will still break even early in its home market run.
We have numbers for one limited release, Fighting with my Family. This film added $35,967 in just four theaters on Friday for a two-day total of $70,241. This is an excellent start for a limited release and bodes well for its wide expansion next weekend. Additionally, its reviews remain over 90% positive, so the word-of-mouth should also help the film’s expansion.
- Alita: Battle Angel Comparisons
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- Isn’t it Romantic Comparisons
- Happy Death Day 2U Comparisons
Filed under: Friday Estimates, The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part, Alita: Battle Angel, Isn’t it Romantic, What Men Want, Fighting With My Family, Happy Death Day 2U, Lego